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0 جایگاه کشاورزی سنتی و مدرن در پایداری اجتماعات روستایی با توجه به معرفی نظریه شبکه روستایی "rural web" Analysis of the Roles of Traditional and Modern Agriculture in the Sustainability of Rural Communities with Regard to the Rural Web Theory https://jrur.ut.ac.ir/article_70087.html 10.22059/jrur.2018.263970.1276 0 کشاورزی نقش اساسی و تعیین کننده‌ای در سرنوشت جامعه روستایی مازندران دارد و با تغییراتی که برای آن رخ می‌دهد، پایداری جوامع روستایی نیز تحت تأثیر آن قرار می‌گیرد. هدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی دو نوع کشاورزی سنتی و مدرن و رابطه آن با سیستم پایداری روستایی است. جامعه موردمطالعه در این تحقیق شامل اجتماعات روستایی در شهرستان آمل است که با استفاده از فرمول کوکران، نمونه‌ای به حجم 77 نفر از افراد کشاورز که دارای سابقه طولانی کشاورزی بودند و تجربه دو نوع کشاورزی سنتی و مدرن را داشتند انتخاب گردیدند. در این تحقیق از ابزار پرسشنامه و مصاحبه استفاده شده است. بر اساس نتایج تحقیق درمجموع کشاورزی سنتی با سیستم پایداری تأثیر مستقیم دارد و می‌توان آن را نوعی از کشاورزی پایدار قلمداد کرد. هر آنچه کشاورزی روستایی به سمت مدرن شدن می‌رود به شدت بر پایداری روستایی اثر منفی دارد. با توجه به تأکید بر کشاورزی پایدار، پیشنهاد آن است که کشاورزی مدرن صرفاً در جهت منافع اقتصادی و سودبَری سوق نیابد و نگرش کشاورز از این که از کشاورزی مدرن می‌توان بیشترین سود حاصل گردد تغییر کند. 1 The rural community in Mazandaran is characterized by agricultural traits and rice cultivation. Indeed, agriculture plays an important role in the social, cultural, economic and environmental relations of rural communities in this province. Considering two types of agriculture, this study aims at the relationship between them and a sustainable system which farmers believe can be achieved in farming. The research method was both quantitative and qualitative. In the quantitative part, a questionnaire was used to collect the data. The farmers that were selected were those who had experience with modern agriculture under the influence of agricultural development programs. In the qualitative part, interviews were conducted with a sample of 20 farmers until data saturation. In this research, a sample of three villages around the city of Amol was selected where the farmers had experience with both traditional and modern agricultural systems. The findings show that, in terms of sustainability, there is a fundamental difference between traditional and modern agricultural practices. Based on the results of the analysis, traditional agriculture has a direct impact on sustainability, and farmers are aware of this. However, where the economy is prevailed by profit attitudes and the other sectors are not involved in agriculture, circumstances are not in line with sustainability. 6 19 سید قاسم حسنی Seyed Ghasem Hasani استادیار مردم شناسی گروه علوم اجتماعی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه مازندران. بابلسر، ایران. ایران g.hassani@umz.ac.ir کشاورزی سنتی کشاورزی مدرن مدل نظری شبکه روستایی پایداری مازندران Hansen, J.w. (1996). Is Agricultural Sustainability A Useful Concept? Agricultural Systems 50(2): 117–143##Harwood, R.r. (1990). A History Of Sustainable Agriculture. P. 3-19. In: C.a. Edwards, R. Lal, P. Madden, R. Millerand G. House (Eds.). Sustainable Agricultural Systems. Soil And Water Conservation Society, Ankeny, Ia.##Hayati, D., Ranjbar, Z. & Karami, E. (2010). Measuring Agricultural Sustainability. In: Biodiversity, Biofuels, Agroforestry And Conservation Agriculture, Pp. 73–100. Springer Netherlands.##Geertz, C. (1963). Agricultural Involution: The Processes Of Ecological Change Inindonesia. Berkeley, University Of California Press.##Guinjoan Eloi.anna Badia,Antoni F. Tulla. (2016). The New Paradigm Of Rural  Development. Using The Rural Web.. Boletín De La Asociación De Geógrafosspañoles N.º 71 -Págs. 495-500##Marsden, T. And Sonnino, R. (2008). «Rural Development And The Regional State: Den‌Ying Multifunctional Agriculture In The Uk». Journal Of Rural Studies, Nº24 (4), 422-431.##Marsden, T. (2010) Mobilising The Regional Eco-Economy:evolving Webs Of Agri-Food And Rural Development Inthe Uk, Cambridge Journal Of Regions. Economy And Society 3: 225–244.##Messely, L., Rogge, E. And Dessein, J. (2013). «Using The Rural Web In Dialogue With Regional Stakeholders». Journal Of Rural Studies, Nº32, 400-410.##Morse, P.m. (1998). Sustainable Development: Chemical Companies Face Trying Task In Moving Efforts Forward. Chem.and Eng. News. August:13.##Nrc (National Research Council). (1993). Sustainable Agriculture And The Environment In The Humid Tropics. Committee On Sustainable Agriculture And Environment In The Humid Tropics, National Academy Of Sciences,Washington, D. C.##Pike, A., Rodríguez-Pose, A. And Tomaney, J. (2007). «What Kind Of Local And Regional Development And For Whom?» Regional Studies, Nº41 (9), 1253-1269.##Posey , D. A. (1999). Introduction: Culture And Nature - The Inextricable Link. In D. A. Posey (Ed), Cultural And Spiritual Values Of Biodiversity, Pp. 3-16.United Nations Environmental Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.##Rao P.k. (2000). Sustainable Development: Economics And Policy, Oxford, Uk, Black, P81##Raynor, B. (1994). Resource Management In Upland Forests Of Pohnpei: Pastpractices And Future Possibilities. Isla: A Journal Of Micronesian Studies 2:47-66.##Raynor, B., & M. Kostka. (2004). Back To The Future: Using Traditional Knowledgeto Strengthen Biodiversity Conservation In Pohnpei, Federated States Of Micronesia. Ethnobotany Research & Applications 1: 70-79.##Slikkerveer, L. J. (1999). Ethnoscience, ‘Tek’ And Its Application To Conservation: Introduction. In D. A. Posey (Ed), Cultural And Spiritual Values Of Biodiversity, Pp. 169-177. United Nations Environmental Programme,Nairobi, Kenya.##Soubbotina, Tatyana P. (2004). Beyond Economic Growth: An Introduction To Sustainable Development, Second Edition (Pdf), Wbi Learning Resources Series, World Bank Institute##United Nations General Assembly. (2009). Report Of The World Commission On Environment And Development: Our Common Future. Transmitted To The General Assembly As An Annex To Document A/42/427 – Development And International Co-Operation: Environment.##United Nations General Assembly .(2010). "Report Of The World Commission On Environment And Development: Our Common Future; Transmitted To The General Assembly As An Annex To Document A/42/427 – Development And International Co-Operation: Environment; Our Common Future, Chapter 2: Towards Sustainable Development; Paragraph 1". United Nations General Assembly. Retrieved 1 March.##Van Der Ploeg, J.d. And Marsden, T. (2008). Unfolding Webs: The Dynamics Of Regional Rural Development. Assen. Royal Van Gorcum.##Ward, N., Atterton, J., Kim, T.-Y., Lowe, P., Phillipson, J. And Thompson, N. (2005). «Universities, The Knowledge Economy And ‘Neo-Endogenous Rural Develop‌Ment’». Centre For Rural Economy Discussion Paper Series, Nº1, 1-15.##Woods, M. (2011). Rural (Key Ideas in Geography). Oxon And New York. Routledge.##Zhen, L. & Routray, J.k. (2003). Operational Indicators For Measuring Agricultural Sustainability In Developing Countries. Environmental Management 32(1): 34–46.##

0 تحلیل میراث فرهنگی خانه‌های تاریخی روستای کزج با رویکرد تفسیری Analyzing the Cultural Heritage of Historical Houses in Kazaj Village with an Interpretive Approach https://jrur.ut.ac.ir/article_70081.html 10.22059/jrur.2019.255478.1242 0 در دنیای معاصر محوطه‌های میراث فرهنگی نقش مهمی در توسعه محلی دارند؛ اما به نظر می‌رسد در کشور ایران توسعه محلی بر مبانی میراث فرهنگی  چندان موضوعیت نداشته است. باوجود غنای میراث فرهنگی ملموس همانند بافت‌ها و بناهای تاریخی و پراکنش آن در نقاط کمتر توسعه‌یافته و روستایی کشور، میراث فرهنگی به‌عنوان یک عنصر توسعه‌ای مطلوب تاکنون بشمار نیامده است. این مقاله با رویکرد تفسیری، «خانه»‌های تاریخی مردم روستای کزج را موردمطالعه قرار داده و تفسیر خانه‌های روستایی را رهیافتی مطلوب در راستای توسعه محلی و شناسایی ارزش‌های محلی می‌داند؛ خانه‌های تاریخی درواقع میراث مادی باارزش در دسترسی هستند که می‌توانند روشنگری‌های ویژه‌ای را در ارتباط با بافت جوامع گذشته فراهم ‌آورند. تحقیق حاضر از طریق روش تفسیری هرمنوتیکی بر اساس توصیف معماری تاریخی در روستای «کزج»، تجارب زیسته ساکنان خانه‌های این روستا را موردمطالعه قرار می‌دهد. در این راستا منظر فرهنگی روستا با جمع‌آوری داده‌های کوچک‌تر؛ توصیفی پدیدارشناسانه شده و از طریق دور هرمنوتیکی، سه مرحله از زندگی بشری استحصال و تفسیر شده است. 1 In the contemporary world, sites of cultural heritage play an important role in local development, but, in Iran, local culture does not seem to be very based on cultural heritage. Despite the tangible cultural richness of historical buildings and their distribution in the less developed and rural areas of the country, cultural legacy has not been considered as a desirable element of development yet. This study discusses the "historical home" of the people in the village of Kozj with an interpretive approach. It considers the interpretation of village houses desirable enough for the local development and the identification of local values. Historic houses are, in fact, the available precious heritage that can shed light on the past societies. The study deals with the experiences of the residents in the village through the hermeneutical interpretation of the historical architecture of the village. In this regard, the cultural landscape of the village is extracted and interpreted phenomenologically through small collections of data. Also, through the hermeneutic cycle, three stages of human life are identified and interpreted. 20 33 بهروز افخمی Behrouz Afkhami استادیار، گروه باستان‌شناسی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران. ایران bafkhami@uma.ac.ir محمد زینالی Mohammad Zeinali Onari کارشناس ارشد، علوم اجتماعی، اداره کل بهزستی استان اردبیل، اردبیل، ایران. ایران saidzeinali@yahoo.com میراث فرهنگی خانه‌های تاریخی پدیدارشناسی توسعه روستایی کزج Afkhami, Behrouz (2018), Cultural and Natural Values of Sabalan Mountains to Inscription in UNESCO World Heritage List, Science Cultivation, Vol 8, No. 1, January 2018##Asgari Khangah; Mohammad Sharif Kamali, ( 2008), General Antropology; Tehran ; Samt Pub.; 5th edition. (In Persian)##B Lees, William (2008); “Historical Archaeology/as Discipline”, Encyclopedia of Archaeology, editor in chief De Borah M. Pearsall, Pages 1438-1443, Academic Press, New York.##Bahar, Mehrdad, (2012), Research in Iran’s mythology, The first and second parts; Tehran Agah Pub. 9th edition. (In Persian)##Benavides, O Hugo(2008); “Development and Archaeology”, Encyclopedia of Archaeology, editor in chief De Borah M. Pearsall, Pages 1088-1093, Academic Press, New York.## Berya, (2008), Sustainable Desert Houses, from a place to live to a desert community; Translated by Mehran Mahmudi; Develop of Geography Pub. 23rd period, No.1 (In Persian)##Boyer Jean Pierre, (2012), Fire encoding, Tehran, Nashr Markaz, 3rd edition.(In Persian)##Choi, Andy S. Brent W. Ritchie, Franco papandrea, Jeff Bennett ,(2010), Economic valuation of Cultural Heritage Sites: A choice Modeling approach, Tourism management 31, pp: 231-220.##Daeipur, Zeinab,(2014), The relationship between presence of nature and increase of belonging sense in trasitional Iranian houses; Baq Nazar Pub., 11th year; No.30 (In Persian)##Eftekhari, rokn-o- din ,A., mahdavi, D., poor taheri, M. (2011). Sustainability Assessment of tourism in cultural- historical villages of Iran with an emphasis on sustainable tourism development paradigm. Tourism Management Studies, 5(14), 1-39##Flennery, Kent,(1999), Initiation of rural settlement: A comparison between the architecture of the early villages in the Near East and Central America; Translated by Kamyar Abdi; Asar Journal; Spring and Summer, No.31 and 32; (In Persian)##Foster, Catherine P (2013); “Households in the Ancient Near East, Archaeology of”, Encyclopedia of Global Archaeology, Editor in chief Claire Smith, Pages 3500-3507, Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London (eBook).##Foucault, Michel,(2012), Theater of philosophy; Translated by Nikon Sarkhosh and Afshin Jahandide; Tehran, Nei Pub.; 3rd edition; (In Persian)##Giran, F.L Dallaport; Lakeau G.(2010),The myths of Assyria and Babylon; Translated by Abulqasem Esmailpur; Tehran; Qatre Pub.; 4th edition; (In Persian)##Heidegger, Martin (2010) Existence and time (Sein Und Zeit) taraleted by Siavash Jamadi, Tehran, Phoenix, Fourth Edition##Homayun, Gholam Ali, (1974), the art of the inhabitants of the Paleolithic to the beginning of history; Historical studies journal; 9th year; No.4 (In Persian)##Housing Foundation of the Islamic Revolutionary, 2007, Ardebil porovince,’Constructor’s Guide to the village of Kazaj’.##Inwood Michael, (2010), Hegel’s philosophical culture; Translated by Hassan Mortezavi, Mashhad, Nika Pub. 2nd edition. (In Persian)##Jameson, John (2008); “Interpretation of Archaeology for the Public”, Encyclopedia of Archaeology, editor in chief De Borah M. Pearsall, Pages 1529-1543, Academic Press, New York.## Janker, Barbara. (2009). Aristotle philosophy; Translated by Mahdad Irani Talab; Tehran; Information Pub; 1st edition.##Keramati, Ghazal;(2011), Manifestations of the nature of the lost voices in the Iranian Houses; paper collection; Dialogue in literature and art; Sokhan Pub.; 1st edition. (In Persian)## Khakpur, Majgan, (2006), Building Shaklil houses in Gilan; 2007 Fine Arts magazine; No.25. (In Persian)##Mahmudi Nejad, Hadi; Mohammad Reza, PurJafari; Mohammad Reza, Bemanian; Mojtaba Ansari; Ali Akbar, Taqvaei(2008); Phenomenology of urban environment: A survey on development of the space concept as an urban place; Environmental Science and Ttechnology; 10th period; No.4(In Persian)##Malek Shahmirzadi, Sadeqi ;( 2008), Iran in prehistory era; archaeological research; Research institute for cultural heritage and tourism research, Tehran; (In Persian)##Orser Jr, Charles E. (2008); “Historical Archaeology/Methods”, Encyclopedia of Archaeology, editor in chief De Borah M. Pearsall, Pages 1445-1447, Academic Press, New York.##Orser Jr, Charles E. (2010); Twenty-First-Century Historical Archaeology; Journal of Archaeological Reserch, vol 18, pp: 111-150.##Partovi, Parvin. (2013), Phenomenology of place, Tehran, Art Culture Center, No.1. (In Persian)##Penelope. Allison. (2008), “Household archaeology”, Encyclopedia of Archaeology, ed. by Deborah M. Pearsall, Pages 1449-1458. 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0 بررسی تطبیقی الگوهای مکان - رفتار در مساکن قبل و بعد از زلزله روستای زلزله زده سرند A Comparative Study of Place-Behavior Patterns in Houses before and after the Earthquake in the Village of Sarand https://jrur.ut.ac.ir/article_70085.html 10.22059/jrur.2019.262446.1268 0 روستای سرند از توابع شهرستان هریس در زلزله آذربایجان شرقی 1391 دچار تخریب صد در صد گردید. هدف از پژوهش حاضر، شناخت و بررسی روند بازسازی و الگوی مسکن ارائه شده برای آسیب‌دیدگان و مقایسه آن با الگوهای پیشین و نیز ارزیابی تطبیقی الگوهای مکان-رفتاری در دو وضعیت قبل و بعد از زلزله و روشن شدن نواقص و مشکلات به وجود آمده جهت رفع آن در حوادث بعدی است. در راستای رسیدن به اهداف مورد نظر، علاوه بر مطالعه اسناد و مدارک موجود، از پیمایش محیطی نیز استفاده شده است، بدین منظور  از روش اکتشافی ـ توصیفی در کل پژوهش بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که الگوهای مکان- رفتار بعد از زلزله مساکن روستای سرند تفاوت اساسی با الگوهای قبل از زلزله داشته و به دلیل شتاب‌زده بودن بازسازی توجهی به الگوهای سنتی و بومی و مشارکت اهالی روستا، همچنین معیشت روستائیان نشده است. علاوه بر این نتایج نشان می‌دهد زبان الگوی خانه‌های جدید (بعد از زلزله) در مقابل زبان الگوی خانه‌های سنتی، قرار دارد. همچنین در مورد الگوهای انسانی می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که الگوهای مکان-رفتار خانه‌های سنتی به الگوهای کالبد-عملکرد در خانه‌های جدید تقلیل یافته‌اند. لذا می‌توان گفت با همکاری و مشارکت دادن روستائیان در بازسازی و استفاده از تجربه و اندیشه آنان و به‌کارگیری اصول سنتی و بومی تا حد لزوم می‌توان تا حدودی زیادی از شدت مشکلات احتمالی در آینده کاست. 1 Sarand is a village in the county of Harris in the East Azerbaijan province, Iran. In 2012, it suffered a total destruction in an earthquake. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the housing pattern proposed for the injured and to compare it with the previous patterns. Also, a comparative evaluation is performed of the behavioral patterns in both pre- and post-earthquake settings to clarify the deficiencies and problems encountered. In order to achieve the desired goals, in addition to studying the existing documents, a field survey was done. For this purpose, the descriptive exploratory method was used in the research.The results of the research indicate that the patterns of place-behavior in Sarand village houses after the earthquake are fundamentally different from the pre-earthquake patterns. Due to the hasty reconstruction of buildings, little or no attention was paid to the traditional and indigenous patterns, participation of the villagers, and issues of rural livelihoods. In addition, the results indicate that the language of the new housing model after the earthquake is in contrast to the language of the traditional housing model. In the case of human patterns, it can be concluded that the place-behavior patterns of traditional houses have turned into poor physical-functional patterns in the new houses. Therefore, possible problems in such cases can be reduced in the future by the cooperation and involvement of users in reconstruction processes, using of their experiences and opinions, and application of traditional and indigenous principles. 34 49 مینو قره بگلو Minou Gharehbaglou دانشیار، گروه معماری و شهرسازی، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه هنر اسلامی تبریز، تبریز، ایران. ایران m.gharehbaglou@tabriziau.ac.ir شهین فرخی Shahin Farrokhi دانشجوی دکتری معماری اسلامی، گروه معماری و شهرسازی، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه هنر اسلامی تبریز، تبریز، ایران. ایران shahin.farrokhi@tabriziau.ac.ir بازسازی مسکن روستایی الگوهای مکان-رفتار قرارگاه رفتار روستای سرند Akbari, R., & Gaderian, M. (2014). Typology of Village Texture; The First Step in Village Perspective (Case Study of Typhology: Yazd Village Village Textures. Journal of Human Geographic Research, 46(3), 635-656.##Alalhesabi, M., & Ganjizadeh, N. (2015). Hierarchy of rural home and its application in the spatial correction of rural housing. Examination of the principles of hierarchy of design in rural homes in Khorasan province. National Conference on Sustainable Agriculture. Paper presented at the Environment and Rural Development., Iran.##Anabastani, A., Anzai, E., & Behzadi, S. (2016). The Effect of Rural Housing Patterns on Cultural and Social Change of Villagers Case Study: Neka City,. Space Economics and Rural Development, 2, 21-42.##Asadi, Z., Porramazan, I., & Molaei Hashjin, N. ( 2016). The Role of Participation in Rural Development of the Khoshkebijar of Rasht. Quarterly journal of space economics and rural development, 1, 61-82.##Askari Rabari, A., Abbaszadeh, Sh., & Abroon, A. A. (2016). An analysis of effective physicalspatial elements in rural housing (Case study: Villages of Dizbad-e-Bala, Frizi, and Aydalik). Journal of Research & Rural Planning, 4(4), 177-193##Azizpour, F. (2016). Modernity and physical-space transformation of rural settlements of Iran. Quarterly Journal of Housing and Rural Environment, 155, 37-50.##Barker, R. G. (1968). Ecological Psychology: Concepts and Methods for Studying the Environment of Human Behavior. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.##Bentley, Y. (2003). Responsive environments. (M. Behzadfar, Trans.): Tehran University of Science and Technology.##Daneshgar Moghadam, G., Habibi, H., & Einifar, A. (2011). The analysis of the social nature of the physical environment influenced by the perception of nature in the human environment. Fine Arts, 3(45), 38-27.##Del, s. (2011). Sustainable landscape for everyone (T. A. a. others, Trans.). Tehran: Rahahr International.##Golabchi, M., & Tayebat, M. (2007). Causes of Incompatibility of Rural Residential Buildings against Earthquakes and Providing Construction Pattern Based on Local Facilities and Abilities Case Study: Zarand Kerman Villages. 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0 ارزیابی شاخص سالخوردگی در مناطق روستایی ایران به کمک سیستم‌های دانش‌بنیان Evaluating the Aging Index in Rural Areas of Iran through Knowledge-based Systems https://jrur.ut.ac.ir/article_70080.html 10.22059/jrur.2019.254662.1235 0 انجام تحقیقات در حوزه علوم انسانی بیشتر یک مبحث کیفی است، و نیازمند سطح تحلیل کیفی و کشف ارتباط درونی متغیرهای پژوهش است. یکی از مباحث مهم و پایه در بحث مطالعات انسانی، مبحث جمعیت‌شناسی و بخصوص شناخت ویژگی‌های ساختاری آن است. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر می‌کوشد تا با به‌کارگیری منطق فازی، وضعیت سالخوردگی جامعه روستایی ایران را در سطح 390 شهرستان کشور مورد بررسی قرار دهد. این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نوع پژوهش‌های توصیفی-تحلیلی است که با روش تحلیل ثانویه انجام شده است. داده‌های موردنیاز متناسب با شش شاخص؛ نسبت پیری و جوانی، نسبت جنسی، نسبت سالمندی، حمایت بالقوه و حمایت پدر و مادر از مرکز آمار ایران استخراج گردیده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که مناطق روستایی حاشیه ایران به دلیل دارای بودن مقادیر مطلوب در شاخص‌های شش‌گانه، با توجه به پایگاه دانش طراحی شده از میزان سالخوردگی کمتری برخوردار بوده، در‌حالی‌که مناطق روستایی داخل ایران به‌شدت به سمت پیری رفته و سالخورده شده‌اند. همچنین نتایج این پژوهش با نقشه قومیت ایران مقایسه شده و نتایج حاکی از آن است که روند سالخوردگی با نقشه قومیت همپوشانی بالایی دارد. چراکه مرزهای جغرافیایی ایران با جغرافیای قومیت‌ها دارای اشتراک مکانی بوده، تمایل به فرزندآوری و داشتن فرزندان بیشتر در این نواحی به نسبت مراکز داخلی کشور بیشتر است. ابن امر سبب افزایش مقدار مطلوب شاخص‌های شش‌گانه و برتری مناطق حاشیه نسبت به مرکز شده است. 1 Research in scientific fields is mainly a qualitative issue which requires a level of qualitative analysis and involves the discovery of the relationships among research variables. One of the most important issues in the discussion of human topics is demography and, in particular, the recognition of demographic features. In this regard, this study seeks to examine the state of aging in Iranian rural communities in 390 counties of the country by using fuzzy logic. The research is a descriptive-analytic type and applied in terms of purpose. It was carried out through secondary analyses. The required data were derived from the Statistics Center of Iran and covered six indicators including the ratio of aging and youth, the ratio of genders, the ratio of old age, potential support and parental support. The results showed that, according to the designed database, the rural areas in the margins of Iran have a low rate of aging due to desirable conditions in the six indicators. In contrast, the rural areas in the internal parts of Iran are severely aged and are moving toward aging rapidly. The results of this study were also compared with the ethnicity map of Iran. It was indicated that the findings of this study about the aging process strongly overlap the information on the ethnicity map. Due to the broad ethnic distribution in the geographical boundaries of Iran, the, the desire to have children is higher than that in the central parts of the country. This has led to an increase in the desirable values of the six indicators in the marginal areas and the superiority of those areas over the internal parts. 50 63 حسنعلی فرجی سبکبار Hassanali Faraji Sabokbar دانشیارگروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. ایران hafaraji@gmail.com حبیب محمودی چناری Habib Mahmoodi Chenari دانشجوی دوره دکتری تخصصی، گرایش برنامه ریزی آمایش محیطی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. ایران habib.mahmoodi@ut.ac.ir علی یوسفی Ali Yousefi دانشجوی دوره دکتری تخصصی، گرایش برنامه ریزی آمایش محیطی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد واحد رشت. رشت، ایران. ایران aliyosefi264@gmail.com مهدی خداداد Mehdi Khodadad کارشناسی ارشد گروه جغرافیای انسانی، جغرافیاوبرنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه گلستان.گرگان، ایران. ایران khodadadmehdi91@yahoo.com جمعیت روستایی سالخوردگی سکونتگاه‌های روستایی سیستم‌های دانش‌بنیان Ahmadi, N. (2004). Various Theories of old Age, Neshat and Happiness, First Year, No. 3.##Ali Mohammadi,Q. 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Available from http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/progdesc/ ssptw/2009-2010/americas/ssptw09americas.pdf.##United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Ageing 2013. ST/ESA/SER.A/348. ST/SEA/SER.A/348, United Nations publication##Zarghami, H and Farimaneh M. (2015). Analytical study of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the elderly of Iran. Journal of Iranian Statistical Studies, Vol. 26, No. 2, Fall and Winter, 2015, pp. 139-160.##

0 راهکارهای مدیریت پایدار آب کشاورزی (مورد مطالعه استان همدان) Methods of Sustainable Agricultural Water Management in Hamedan Province https://jrur.ut.ac.ir/article_70082.html 10.22059/jrur.2018.258270.1258 0 هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی راهکارهای مدیریت پایدار آب کشاورزی و بررسی تأثیر هر یک بر متغیر وابسته تحقیق است که با رویکرد آمیخته (کیفی-کمی) انجام شد. جامعه آماری این مطالعه را کارشناسان و متخصصان حوزه آب در سطح استان همدان به تعداد 130 نفر تشکیل می‌دادند که در مرحله کیفی تعداد 35 نمونه به شیوه هدفمند و در مرحله کمی تعداد 100 نفر با استفاده از جدول کرجسی و مورگان به شیوه تصادفی انتخاب شدند. برای بررسی و تحلیل روابط بین متغیرهای مستقل (راهکارها) و وابسته (مدیریت پایدار آب کشاورزی) از مدل‌یابی معادلات ساختاری بر اساس الگوریتم PLS بهره گرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد که 55 درصد از واریانس متغیر وابسته (مدیریت پایدار آب کشاورزی) توسط متغیرهای مستقل موردبررسی (13 راهکار شناسایی‌شده) تبیین می‌شود که از بین این راهکارها، «برنامه‌ریزی آبیاری» (به‌عنوان راهکار اصلی) با ضریب تأثیر 275/0 بیشترین اهمیت و تأثیر را دارد. آموزش‌های کاربردی و مستمر با ضریب تأثیر 269/0، بازچرخانی آب در فرآیند تولید با ضریب تأثیر 247/0، افزایش راندمان انتقال آب با ضریب تأثیر 209/0، آگاهی‌بخشی و اطلاع‌رسانی با ضریب تأثیر 197/0 و در نهایت کاهش ضایعات کشاورزی با ضریب تأثیر 172/0 به ترتیب رتبه‌های دوم تا ششم را به خود اختصاص دادند. 1 The purpose of this study was to delineate methods of sustainable agricultural water management. The study is based on a mixed methodology, namely both quantitative and qualitative. The statistical population included 130 water experts in Hamedan province. In the qualitative phase, 35 participants were purposefully selected, but, in the quantitative phase, there were 100 experts selected randomly according to Krejcie and Morgan’s sampling table. In order to identify the relationships between the independent variables (i.e. solutions to water management) and the dependent variable (i.e. sustainable agricultural water management), structural equation modeling was used through the PLS algorithm. The results showed that 55 % of the dependent variable variance was determined by 13 independent variables. Of these variables, the irrigation planning solution proved to be the main solution with the highest impact and a coefficient of 0.275. 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0 تحلیلی بر پذیرش اجتماعی تأمین آب جهت خودکفایی گندم تا افق 1404 جمهوری اسلامی ایران Analyzing the Social Acceptance of Supplying Water to Achieve Wheat Self-sufficiency up to 2025 https://jrur.ut.ac.ir/article_67945.html 10.22059/jrur.2018.246929.1191 0 در شرایط منابع آبی کشور، برقراری تناسب بین امنیت غذایی متکی بر تولید داخل و امنیت آبی به عنوان دو مؤلفه‌‌ی اساسی امنیت ملی و پذیرش اجتماعی آن، از الزامات مشروعیت و مقبولیت سیاست‌ها در چارچوب ارتقای حکمروایی آب و کشاورزی تلقی ‌‌می‌‌گردد. هدف این مقاله که منعکس‌کننده بخشی از یک آینده‌پژوهی یکپارچه است به دنبال پاسخ به چگونگی پذیرش دلایل ناظر بر تأمین آب برای خودکفایی گندم تا 1404 از سوی ذی‌نفعان اصلی هست. بر اساس اطلاعات NETWAT مصرف آب تولید ملی گندم برآورد شده سپس بنا به نتایج کارگاه، معیارهای تأیید و رد تأمین آب برای خودکفایی گندم در قالب سیزده متغیر استخراج گردید. پرسشنامه‌ای با طیف لیکرت 5 گزینه‌‌ای و پس از ارزیابی روایی توسط کارشناسان و برآورد آلفای کرونباخ 704/0 در سطح 05/0 میان 47 نفر از خبرگان بخش کشاورزی و آب توزیع شد که با روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌‌ای و هدف‌مند انتخاب شدند. فرضیه پایین بودن میزان پذیرش µi 1 Food security and water security are the fundamental components of community policy making. Through increasing safety and health as well as taking care of future generations and marginal groups, food security serves as one of the key issues related to sustainable rural and agriculture development. However, for the future of the world food, supplying the necessary water is a serious global challenge. With regard to the importance of the social acceptance of cost-benefit issues about water supplying for wheat self-sufficiency in the country, this paper seeks to respond to the question ‘how socially acceptable are the water supply programs for wheat self-sufficiency?’. Agriculture census (2012-13) and NETWAT data were used to compare the water consumption for wheat and other crops. A virtual workshop design was implemented for a social discourse about the reasons of water supply for wheat self-sufficiency. This was according to the integral future studies approach (2014-15). The data collection tool was a questionnaire (α = 0.05, chronbakh = 0.73) taken by a sample of 47 experts. As the results of the t-test (α = 0.05) showed, the experts would accept the pursuit of water supply programs for wheat self-sufficiency provided that water productivity is promoted and the following conditions are fulfilled: a) maintenance of the unique position of wheat in the food basket of the society, b) less water requirement for wheat than for most crops, c) insured access to wheat through its domestic production, d) improvement of national economic capacity, e) maintenance of agricultural employment capacity especially in rural areas, and f) maintenance and enhancement of national security. 78 91 سیدعلی اکبر عظیمی دزفولی Seid Ali Akbar Azimi Dezfuli استادیار آینده پژوهی، موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه ریزی اقتصادکشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، وزارت جهادکشاورزی، تهران، ایران. ایران info@msfs.ir عبدالرضا رکن الدین افتخاری Abdoreza Rukn al-din Eftekhari استاد برنامه ریزی جغرافیایی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران. ایران reftekhari_reza@yahoo.com قدیر نظامی پور Ghadir Nezamipur استادیار مدیریت راهبردی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، تهران، ایران. ایران dr.ghn38@yahoo.com اوا هایدج Eva Hideg استاد آینده پژوهی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه کوروینوس، بوداپست، مجارستان. ایران eva.hideg@uni-corvinus.hu بیژن نظری Bizan Nazari استادیار آبیاری زهکشی، دانشکده فنی مهندسی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران. ایران b.nazari@eng.ikiu.ac.ir مهدی کاظم نژاد Mahdi KazemNejad استادیار اقتصادکشاورزی، موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه ریزی اقتصادکشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، وزارت جهادکشاورزی، تهران، ایران. ایران kazemnejad@gmail.com منوچهر فرج زاده Manochehr Farajzadeh دانشیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران. ایران farajzam@modares.ac.ir هدایت فهمی Hedayat Fahmi دکتری مدیریت منابع آب، وزارت نیرو، تهران، ایران. ایران hedayat.fahmi@gmail.com خودکفایی گندم نیاز آبی پذیرش اجتماعی حکمروایی آب و کشاورزی آینده‌پژوهی یکپارچه Agricultural Planning Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI) (2016). 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R. of Iran, Qazvin, Imam Khomeini Unversity Publishing##Azimi Dezfuli, S. A. A., Rukn al-din Eftekhari A., Nezamipur, G. & Hideg, E. (2017). [A survey on integral futures studies capacity to overcome the challenge of meeting future water resources for food production at the national level in iran, journal of sustainable rural development., (Persian)]. Journal of Sustainable Rural Development, May 2017, 1(1): 53-68##Azimi Dezfuli, S. A. A., Rukn al-din Eftekhari, A., Nezamipur, Q., Hideg, E., Nazari, B., Farajzadeh, M., Kazem nejad, M. & Fahmi, H. (2017). [An estimation on wheat water irrigation in I.R of Iran (Persian)]. The Journal of Spatial Planning, 21(2), 173-195##Badri, S .A., & Rukn al-din Eftekhari, A. S. (2003) [Sustainability Assessment: Concept and Method (Persian)]. Geographic Research, Summer, No. 69.##Bell, W. 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0 تحلیل عوامل کلیدی موثر بر شکل‌دهی الگوی آمایش فضاهای روستایی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری (مورد مطالعه: استان لرستان) Analysis of the Key Factors Affecting the Formation of Spatial Planning Patterns in Rural Areas Based on the Foresight Approach: A Case Study of Lorestan https://jrur.ut.ac.ir/article_67928.html 10.22059/jrur.2018.217086.993 0 برنامه‌های توسعه و عمران روستایی بر اساس الگو‌های مختلف در استان لرستان، توفیق مورد انتظار را در رونق اقتصادی و بهبود زندگی روستاییان نداشته و به لحاظ اجتماعی در نهادینه کردن مشارکت روستاییان و توانمندسازی آنان موفقیت چندانی کسب ننموده است. برای‌ از بین بردن این آثار منفی از فضاهای روستایی استان، ضروری است که عوامل کلیدی مؤثر برای ارائه الگوی آمایش فضاهای روستایی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری به عنوان هدف اصلی این تحقیق شناسایی و تحلیل گردد. بدین روی‌ در این تحقیق با استفاده از روش‌های‌ دلفی‌، پنل متخصصان و تحلیل تأثیرات متقابل با کمک نرم‌افزار MicMac  عوامل کلیدی مؤثر در طراحی الگوی آمایش فضاهای روستایی شناسایی‌ و تحلیل شده است. نتایج به دست آمده نشان می‌‌دهد که از 40 مسئله و مشکل اصلی‌ برنامه‌های‌ روستایی‌، 13 عامل چشم‌انداز روستایی، آینده‌نگاری، محیط‌زیست، ساختار اقتصاد روستایی، حکمروایی روستایی، سناریوهای جایگزین، ویژگی‌های مناطق، آمایش سرزمین، مشارکت روستاییان، اصول توسعه فضایی روستایی، ظرفیت محلی و سرمایه اجتماعی، مدیریت روستایی و همگرایی- واگرایی بخش‌ها مهم‌ترین عوامل کلیدی‌ مؤثر بر طراحی‌ الگوی آمایش فضاهای روستایی لرستان محسوب می‌شود. 1 Rural development programs based on different patterns in Lorestan province did not have the expected effect on the economic prosperity and improvement of villagers' life. Socially, they had no success to establish the participation of villagers and their empowerment either. In order to eliminate these shortcomings from the rural areas of the province, it is necessary to identify and analyze the key factors in presenting a rural spatial planning pattern through a foresight approach. In this research, Delphi and panel techniques together with the analysis of interactions were implemented with the MicMac software to identify and analyze the key factors involved in designing a pattern for rural spatial planning. The results showed that, out of 40 main problems in rural programs, 13 factors are the most important ones to affect the design of a pattern for the rural areas of Lorestan. These factors include rural perspective, futurism, environment, rural economic structure, rural governance, alternative scenarios, features of the regions, land use planning, rural participation, spatial development principles, rural, local capacity and social capital, rural management, and convergence-divergence of the sectors. 92 113 امید امیدی شاه آباد Omid Omidi Shahabad دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. ایران omidomidi@ut.ac.ir سیدعلی بدری Seyed Ali Badri دانشیار جغرافیای روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. ایران sabadri@ut.ac.ir محمدرضا رضوانی Mohammad Reza Rezvani استاد جغرافیای روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. ایران rrezvani@ut.ac.ir نادر زالی Nader Zali دانشیار برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای، گروه طراحی شهری، دانشکده معماری و هنر، دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران. ایران n.zali54@gmail.com الگوی آمایشی فضاهای روستایی آینده‌نگاری میک مک لرستان Afrakhteh, Hassan, (2009). 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0 برساخت اجتماعی خشکسالی در میان کشاورزان (مورد مطالعه: بخش مرکزی و غربی استان اصفهان) The Social Construction of Drought among Farmers: A Case Study of the Central and Western Parts of Isfahan Province https://jrur.ut.ac.ir/article_68562.html 10.22059/jrur.2018.253726.1250 0 پژوهش حاضر به تحلیل جامعه‌شناختی پدیده خشکسالی از منظر کشاورزان استان اصفهان بر اساس رویکردی تفسیری - برساختی پرداخته است. روش پژوهش از نوع کیفی است. داده‌ها از طریق انجام مصاحبه‌های عمیق نیمه‌ساخت‌یافته جمع‌آوری شد. حجم نمونه 35 نفر از کشاورزان بخش مرکزی و غربی استان اصفهان بود که بر مبنای نمونه‌گیری هدفمند از نوع حداکثرِ تنوع انتخاب شدند. مبنای اتمام مصاحبه‌ها اشباع نظری بوده است. برای تحلیل داده‌های حاصل از مصاحبه‌ها، از روش نظریه زمینه‌ای استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن بود که خشکسالی از دیدگاه کشاورزان یک پدیده چند لایه‌ای است که دارای عللی چندگانه است. به طور کلی، کشاورزان 4 عامل اصلی را به عنوان علل پدیده خشکسالی بیان نموده‌اند: «حکمرانی ناکارآمد آب»، «کشاورزی خودمدار»، «تغییرات اقلیمی»، «علل تقدیرگرایانه». این عوامل در تعامل با یکدیگر، پدیده خشکسالی را شکل می‌دهند. یافته‌های پژوهش حاضر می‌تواند در زمینه سیاست‌گذاری‌های مرتبط با کشاورزی و توسعه حکمرانی خوب در این زمینه مؤثر باشد. 1 In this research, a socio-economic analysis of drought was conducted from the perspective of farmers in Isfahan Province. The research was based on an interpretive-constructive approach, and its method was qualitative. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews. The sample size was 35 farmers in the central and western parts of Isfahan Province who were selected based on the purposeful sampling of the maximum diversity. The basis for the completion of the interviews was theoretical saturation. To analyze the data obtained from the interviews, a systematic field theory analysis was done. The results of the study indicated that, from the farmers' point of view, drought is a multifactor phenomenon induced by multiple causes. In general, the farmers enumerated four main factors as the causes of drought, including ineffective water management, self-centered agriculture, climate change, and fatalistic causes. 114 129 عظیمه السادات عبداللهی Azimeh Sadat Abdullahi استادیار، گروه جامعه شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. ایران a_abdelahi@pnu.ac.ir صادق صالحی Sadegh Salehi دانشیار، گروه جامعه شناسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران. ایران s.salehi.umz@gmail.com محمدجواد زاهدی Mohammad Javad Zahedi Mazandarani استاد، گروه جامعه شناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. ایران m_zahedi@pnu.ac.ir محمدسعید ذکایی Mohammad Saeed Zokaei استاد، گروه مطالعات فرهنگی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران. ایران saeed.zokaei@gmail.com بخش مرکزی و غربی استان اصفهان حکمرانی ناکارآمد خشکسالی ساختار کشاورزی نظریه زمینه‌ای Azizi-Khalkheili, T., & Zamani, Gh. 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0 پهنه‌بندی فضایی مزیت نسبی کارآفرینی روستایی و عوامل مؤثر در آن (مورد مطالعه شهرستان پارس‌آباد) Spatial Zoning of the Relative Advantage of Rural Entrepreneurship and the Factors Affecting it: A Case Study of Pars Abad County https://jrur.ut.ac.ir/article_67950.html 10.22059/jrur.2018.254656.1234 0 امروزه کارآفرینی و ایجاد فعالیت‌های کارآفرینانه بهترین راهبرد در ماندگاری و توسعه روستاها شناخته می‌شود. با این حال فعالیت‌های کارآفرینی در این مناطق می‌بایست بر اساس ظرفیت‌ها و پتانسیل‌های موجود در آن‌ها صورت گیرد تا به موفقیت دست یابد. تحقیق حاضر که با هدف پهنه‌بندی مناطق روستایی پارس‌آباد از نظر مزیت نسبی کارآفرینی و عوامل مؤثر در آن نگاشته شده است، از نوع مطالعات کاربردی با روش توصیفی - تحلیلی است. روش گردآوری اطلاعات به روش اسنادی و میدانی (پرسشنامه و مشاهده) صورت گرفته است. جامعه آماری تحقیق را کارآفرینان و روستاییان تشکیل می‌دهند که به ترتیب نمونه‌های انتخاب شده 22 نفر از کارآفرینان روستایی با روش تمام‌شماری و 377 نفر از روستاییان با روش نمونه‌گیری طبقه‌بندی شده تصادفی، می‌باشند. برای پهنه‌بندی مزیت نسبی کارآفرینی روستایی از شاخص‌های مزیت مقیاس (SAI)، مزیت کارایی (EAI)، مزیت نسبت مکانی (LQ) و مزیت جمعی (AAI)، با استفاده از تحلیل خوشه-ای سلسله مراتبی، برای بررسی عوامل مؤثر از آزمون تحلیل واریانس کروسکال‌والیس و جهت پیش‌بینی وضعیت رشد کارآفرینی در مناطق روستایی از روش تغییر - سهم استفاده شد. نتایج به دست آمده نشان داد که دهستان‌های اصلاندوز، اسلام‌آباد، ساوالان و اولتان بیشترین مزیت نسبی را در کارآفرینی روستایی دارا هستند. و عوامل متمایز کننده عمدتاً عملکردی محلی دارند و کمیت و کیفیت کارآفرینی را تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهند. 1 Nowadays, entrepreneurship and the creation of entrepreneurial activities are the best strategy for the survival and development of villages. The present research aims at zoning the rural areas of Pars Abad in terms of the relative advantages of entrepreneurship and the factors that affect it. The research is based on a descriptive-analytic method. Data gathering was done by document and field methods, i.e. questionnaire and observation. The statistical population of the study consisted of entrepreneurs and villagers. According to the sample, 22 rural entrepreneurs were selected by the random sampling method, and 377 villagers were selected randomly. To evaluate the relative advantage of rural entrepreneurship, the scale advantage index (SAI), efficiency advantage index (EAI), spatial advantage index (LQ) and collective advantage index (AAI) were used through a hierarchical cluster analysis. Also, to investigate the affecting factors, Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance was done. The change-share method was used to predict the growth status of entrepreneurship in rural areas. As the results showed, Aslandois, Islamabad, Savalan and Oltan have the greatest comparative advantage in rural entrepreneurship. It was also found that differentiating factors are mainly local practices that affect the quantity and quality of entrepreneurship. 130 145 مجتبی قدیری معصوم Mojtaba Ghadiri Masoum استاد،گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. ایران mghadiri@ut.ac.ir سید حسن مطیعی لنگرودی Seyed Hassan Motiee Langrudi استاد،گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. ایران shmotiee@ut.ac.ir محمدرضا زالی Mohammad Reza Zali دانشیار، گروه کارآفرینی سازمانی، دانشکده کارآفرینی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. ایران mrzali@ut.ac.ir علی غلامی Ali Gholami دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی - برنامه‌ریزی فضایی کارآفرینی در مناطق روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران . ایران gholami@ut.ac.ir مزیت نسبی کارآفرینی کارآفرینی روستایی مناطق روستایی پارس‌آباد Dinis, A. (2006). 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0 آسیب‌شناسی برنامه‌های توسعه در بخش روستایی با روش آمیخته (مورد مطالعه: شهرستان ورزقان) Pathology of the Consequences of Development Plans in Rural Areas by a Mixed Method: A Case Study of Varzaqan County https://jrur.ut.ac.ir/article_70086.html 10.22059/jrur.2018.263703.1273 0 تحقیق حاضر به آسیب‌شناسی پیامدهای برنامه‌های توسعه در بخش روستایی شهرستان ورزقان با روش آمیخته (کمی- کیفی، به شیوه همگرا) پرداخته است. ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و به لحاظ ماهیت و روش از نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی است. به لحاظ گردآوری داده‌ها، از نوع ترکیبی بوده و بنیان فلسفی آن مبتنی بر رویکرد پراگماتیسم است. جامعه آماری شامل کارشناسان محلی است که در بخش کمی از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته (برای 132 نفر پاسخگو) و در بخش کیفی از مشاهده و مصاحبه نیمه‌ساختار‌یافته (51 نفر مصاحبه‌شونده در دو مرحله) استفاده شده است. نبود فرصت‌های شغلی مناسب برای جوانان، فقدان فعالیت‌های تولیدی اشتغال‌زا، ناموفق بودن ایجاد صنایع متصل به کارخانجات معدنی موجود در منطقه، ناموفق بودن صنایع و کارگاه‌های کوچک اشتغال‌زای کشاورزی و افزایش فقر و محرومیت اجتماعی از مهم‌ترین پیامدهای مستخرج از تجزیه‌وتحلیل کیفی به روش تئوری بنیادی است. نتایج ارزیابی نیکویی برازش حاصل از مدل ساختاری (حداقل مربعات جزئی) نشان می‌دهد که مدل ارائه‌شده در سطح مطلوب با داده‌های تجربی سازگاری دارد و در منطقه موردمطالعه ارتباطی یک‌سویه بین پیامدهای اجتماعی، اقتصادی، کالبدی و جامع وجود دارد که پیامدهای اقتصادی و اجتماعی برنامه‌های توسعه منجر به بروز پیامدهای فضایی و جامع هستند؛ به‌طوری‌که شرایط اجتماعی و اقتصادی به فضا و کالبد منطقه تأثیر منفی می‌گذارند؛ همچنین تحلیل مسیر پیامدهای فضایی با پیامدهای جامع نشان می‌دهد که کمرنگ شدن جایگاه روستا و کشاورزی در رویکرد توسعه ملی و عدم تطابق اقدامات با بنیان‌های توسعه پایدار از مهم‌ترین متغیرهای با ضریب تأثیر بالا هستند. 1 This research aims at the pathology of the consequences of development plans in the rural areas of Varzaqan city. The research was conducted through a mixed method. In terms of purpose, it is functional, and, in nature, it is a descriptive-analytical study. In terms of data collection, it is a mixed type, and it is philosophically based on a pragmatist approach. The statistical population consisted of 132 local experts who participated in a quantitative section by responding to a researcher-made questionnaire and 51 experts who took part in two stages of qualitative semi-structured interviews and observations. Lack of suitable employment opportunities for young people, lack of productive activities, unsuccessful establishment of industries connected with the existing mines in the region, unsuccessful industries and small workshops of agricultural employment, and increasing poverty and social deprivation were the most important findings of the qualitative analysis by the Grounded theory. The results of the goodness-fit assessment obtained from the PLS structural model showed that the proposed model was compatible with the experimental data at an optimal level. Also, in the study area, there was a unified relationship among social, economic, physical and comprehensive consequences. The economic and social consequences of developmental plans were found to have led to certain spatial and comprehensive situations. The analysis of the spatial outcomes with comprehensive implications showed the weakening of rural and agricultural status in national development attempts and the mismatch of measures with the foundations of sustainable development. 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