تحلیل مقایسه‌ای سرمایه‌گذاری در توسعه صنایع تبدیلی کشاورزی با بهره‌گیری از روش اقتصاد مهندسی و تکنیک دلفی (موردمطالعه: شهرستان همدان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد توسعه روستایی، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

چکیده

هدف اصلی این تحقیق تحلیل مقایسه‌ای اولویت‌بندی سرمایه‌گذاری در صنایع تبدیلی کشاورزی شهرستان همدان در دو رویکرد کمی و کیفی شامل تکنیک‌های اقتصاد مهندسی و دلفی است. این تحقیق از نظر هدف کاربردی و ازنظر نحوه گردآوری داده‌ها غیرآزمایشی است. در تحقیق حاضر، ابتدا با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی گزینه‌های قابل انتخاب طبق نظر کارشناسان و صاحب‌نظران استخراج و سپس به روش‌های آماری اولویت‌بندی گردیدند. همچنین با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیل اقتصاد مهندسی و با برآورد متغیرهایی نظیر هزینه‌های ثابت سرمایه‌گذاری، هزینه‌های تولید، استهلاک، دارایی‌ها و ساختار درآمدی پروژه‌ها، و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار کامفار ш بازده اقتصادی سرمایه‌گذاری در صنایع مختلف تبدیلی استان محاسبه گردید. ارزیابی اقتصادی پروژه‌ها و اولویت‌بندی آن‌ها در تکنیک اقتصاد مهندسی با استفاده از معیارهای خالص ارزش فعلی (NPW)، نرخ بازگشت سرمایه (ROR) و هزینه ایجاد هر شغل صورت پذیرفت. طبق نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از روش دلفی، صنایع مرتبط با محصولاتی نظیر سیر و سیب‌زمینی با در نظر گرفتن تمامی شاخص‌ها در اولویت‌های اول و پس‌ از آن صنایع تولید ترشی‌ و کنسرو میوه و کمپوت‌ها در اولویت‌های بعدی قرارگرفتند. بر اساس یافته‌های تحقیق و با در نظر گرفتن معیار نرخ بازگشت سرمایه (ROR)، طرح تولید ترشیجات اولویت اول، تولید کشمش اولویت دوم، تولید پودر سیب‌زمینی اولویت سوم، و بر اساس شاخص هزینه ایجاد یک شغل، طرح تولید ترشیجات اولویت اول، و طرح تولید کمپوست کشاورزی اولویت دهم را به خود اختصاص دادند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

A Comparative Analysis of Investment in the Development of Agricultural Processing Industries Using Delphi & Engineering-Economic Approach (Case Study: Hamedan County)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Balali 1
  • Sara Ghazvineh 2
  • Reza Movahedi 1
1 Associate Professor on Agricultural Economic, Department of Agricultural Extension & Education, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
2 M.Sc. on Rural Development, Department of Agricultural Extension & Education, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The main objective of this research is to prioritize investment in the food processing industry in Hamedan and compare the results in two quantitative and qualitative approaches using engineering economics and Delphi. This research is practical in terms of purpose and is non-experimental in terms of data collection. In the present study, valuable themes were found through a Delphi method, and then they were processed from the point of view of experts. Necessary estimates were done using the Engineering-Economic approach (such as fixed investment costs, production costs, depreciation, assets, etc.). The engineering-economic analysis was done by the net present worth (NPW), the rate of return (ROR), and the cost of creating each job. According to the results of the Delphi method, industries related to garlic and potato crops were priorities. Then industries related to pickles production, canned, and concentrated fruits were the next priorities. According to research findings, concerning the standard rate of return (ROR) on investment, the pickles production plan is the first priority. Raisin and potato powder productions situated in the second and third preferences. According to the net present value of investment, forage and animal feed plan, potato powder, and garlic powder production were ranked as first to third, respectively. According to the results of the Delphi method, industries related to products such as garlic and potatoes were given the first priority, followed by picking, canning, and compote industries. Based on the research findings and taking the Capital Return Rate (ROR) criterion into account, the first priority is the picking plan, and raisin production and potato powder production are the next ranks. Based on the cost-of-job creation index, the priority plan for pickling production and the agricultural compost production plan were given the tenth priority.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Engineering Economics
  • Delphi Approach
  • Investment
  • Agricultural Processing Industries
  • comparative analysis

مراجع

Balali. H., Saadi. H., & Ghazvineh. S, (2015). Investment Prioritizing of Food and Agricultural Processing Industries (Case Study of Hamedan City). Hournal of Research and Rural Planning, Vol.4, No, 9.
Bhalla. A.S., (1982). Rural Industrialization and New Economic Policies in Human (China). World Employment Programme Reaearch, 8(5), 37.
Daroogheh, J. and Mohammadi, T.(2005). Investing in Uncertainty (Case Study of Iranian Economy). Journal of Pajooheshnameh Eghtesadi, 4(3): 49-80.
Davarpanah, A.A. Nooripour, M. And Sharifi, Z. (2014). [The role of agricultural processing industries in reducing agricultural products waste in rural areas, case study Dashte Room (Persian)].Rural development strategies, 1(4), 39-54.
Fathirasekh. M., (2006). Kamfar software pamphlet.
Ghaderpour, L. Mousavi, S.N, & Farajzadeh, Z.(2015). The effect of government support policies on the supply of agricultural conversion units(In persian). Two Quarterly Journal of Economic Development and Planning Research. 4(2): 93-101.
Ghanbari, S. & Miraki Anari, H.(2017). Locating the Conversion and Supplementary Industries of the Agricultural Division in the Town of Khanmyrza Town of Lordegan( In persian). Journal of Space Economics and Rural Development, 4(6): 177-194.
Hsu. Ch. and Sandford.  B.A., (2008). The Delphi technique: making sense of consensus. Available from: http://pareonline.net/pdf/v12n10.pdf.
Jahangiri. A. and Nasiri. M., (2007). [Evaluation and industrial investment priorities using taxonomic techniques (Persian)]. Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, “Management”, 7 (25), 53-72.
Keeney. S., Hasson. F. and McKenna. H.P., (2001). A critical review of the Delphi technique as a research methodology for nursing. Int J Nurs Stud, 38(2), 195-200.
Keihanihekmat. R. and Fathipoor. Gh. (2010). Rating industrial activities in Hamedan province based on the relative merits of cooperative and competitive (Persian). Reviews of Commerce, 8(44), 2-18.
Masumzade. M. and Torabzade. A. (2004). Ranking of the country’s industrial production (Persian). Business Journal, 8 (30), 67-81.
Mohammadpour Zarandi, M. E. & Shahriari, M.(2011). Economic Analysis of Investment Projects in a Fuzzy Banking System. Journal of Engineering and Management of Securities. Vol.8. 1-9.
Moheban, P. Moosavi, N. And Najafi, B. (2016). [Efficiency of processing industries in Iran (Persian)].Agricultural economic researches journal, 8 (4),10-79.
Moradi Ghezli, Kh. Agahi, H. Zarafshani, K. And Papzan, A. (2015). [Qualitative analysis of challenges facing fruits processing industries in Kermanshah province (Nvivo application), (Persian)]. Rural research journal, 6(3),483-514.
Naderi Mahdei, K. Mahmoodian, H. And Saadi, H. (2015). [The effect of agricultural processing industries on life standard (case study of Bahar rural areas) (Persian)]. Rural development strategies, 2(1), 43-59.
Noori zamanabadi H., Beikmohammadi. H., Taghdisi. A. and Shafiei. P., (2010). [Prioritizing small industries and workshops in rural areas of ARDESTAN city by Delphi (Persian)].Journal of Rural and Development, 13(2), 61-79.
Noori zamanabadi. H. and Nilipoor tabatabaei. SH., (2007). [Further prioritize development of processing industry and agricultural sector using the Delphi method Falavarjan city - Isfahan Province (Persian)].Journal of Geographical Research, 39(61), 161-177.
Oskoonejhad. M.M., (1996). [Engineering economic or Economic evaluation of industrial projects (Persian)]. Tehran: Amir Kabir University.
Pahlavani. A., (2009). [Prioritize investments using group decision Topsis hierarchical fuzzy environment (Persian)]. Industrial Management, 1(2), 35-54.
Pourramezan, E. and Akbari, Z.(2013). The Effects of the Conversion and Supplementary Industries of the Agricultural Sector on the Rural Economy, Case (Study: Central District of Rasht)( In Persian). Journal of Space Economics and Rural Development, 3(4): 145-164.
Sanayei. A. and Moalem. S., (2002). [Ranking of industrial activities in the production and export of various industrial sectors based on comparative and competitive advantages (Persian)]. Commercial Journal, 6(23), 37-72.
Sharma. K.D., Pathania. M.S. and Lai. H., (2010). Value chain Analysis and Financial viability of Agro- processing Industries in Himachal Pradesh. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 23, 515- 522.
Shirzour. Z. (2006). [Industry-level analysis of the advantages of Khorasan province (Persian)]. M.Sc. thesis Mashhad: Ferdowsi University of Economics.
Tabibian, S.M.(2010). Macroeconomics, 9th edition, Institute for Advanced Studies in Planning and Development, Tehran.
Tafazzoli, F.(2016). Macroeconomics: Economic Theories and Policies, 20th edition, Nasr-e-e ney Publication, Teharn.
Vesal, Z. Khajeshahkoohi, A. And Najafikani, A. (2018). [The role of small industries in socio-economic development of rural areas: case of central sector in Fariman County (Persian)].Space economy and rural development quarterly, 6 (19), 61-76.
Zarghami. M. (2002). An economic analysis of investment projects in some selected industries in agriculture. A research project from Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, Tehran: deputy minister of research and technology of university of jihad.
پژوهش های روستائی
دوره 10، شماره 3
آذر 1398
صفحه 396-407

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 15 دی 1396
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 21 اسفند 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 24 اسفند 1397

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار