پیامدهای امنیتی - انتظامی خالی از سکنه شدن سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در استان خراسان جنوبی: یک مطالعه دلفی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

استادیار، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده فرماندهی و ستاد، دانشگاه علوم انتظامی امین، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در دهه‌های گذشته ضعف راهبردهای توسعه‌روستایی، تغییرات اقلیمی و خشکسالی مداوم در استان خراسان‌جنوبی، سبب شکل گیری مهاجرت بی‌رویه روستایی-شهری شده، و این مساله خالی از سکنه شدن حدود نیمی از روستاها را در پی داشته است. بر این اساس، پرسش اساسی پژوهش عبارت است از، پیامدهای امنیتی تخلیه‌جمعیتی سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در استان خراسان‌جنوبی کدام‌اند؟ پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ شیوه گردآوری و تجزیه داده‌ها از نوع توصیفی-پیمایشی است، که در چهارچوب مراحل مطالعه دلفی انجام شده است. به روش نمونه‌گیری هدفمند، اعضای پانل دلفی به تعداد 35 نفر از میان متخصصان مرتبط با موضوع انتخاب شد. به منظور تدوین گزاره‌های دلفی، با رویکرد اکتشافی دو نشست گروه کانونی برگزار و در هر نشست 12 نفر از اعضای پانل دلفی مشارکت کردند. پیمایش دلفی طی دو دور تکرار و پس از رسیدن به اجماع قابل قبول میان اعضای پانل، متوقف شد. آزمون‌های توصیفی شامل میانگین، انحراف معیار، میانگین رتبه‌ای برای تجزیه و تحلیل نتایج نظرسنجی دلفی و همچنین ضریب توافقی کندال برای بررسی سطح اجماع میان مشارکت‌کنندگان به کار رفت. بر پایه یافته‌های مرحله اکتشافی دلفی 22 گزاره‌ به عنوان پیامدهای تخلیه جمعیتی سکونتگاه‌های روستایی شناسایی شد. به طور کلی، تضعیف نظم و امنیت شهرهای مهاجرپذیر، اختلال در امنیت عمومی و امنیت اجتماعی نواحی روستایی، دشوار شدن مدیریت انتظامی بحران‌های انسانی و طبیعی در قلمرو جغرافیای روستایی، افزایش جرم و جنایت و خلاءهای امنیتی در نواحی روستایی، ناپایدار شدن امنیت غذایی و امنیت اقتصادی کسب‌وکارهای روستایی در مقیاس منطقه‌ای مهم‌ترین نتایج پژوهش هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Security Implications of Depopulated Rural Settlements in South Khorasan Province: A Delphi Study

نویسندگان [English]

  • Naser Bayat
  • Ali Osanlu
Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Command and General Staff, Amin Police University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Weak rural development strategies, climate change issues and successive droughts in the province of South Khorasan over the past decades caused about half of the rural settlements to be completely empty of human population. Due to this issue, the main question of this research is “What are the security consequences of population evacuation of rural settlements in South Khorasan province?” In terms of purpose, the present research is an applied study, and in terms of method of data collection and analysis, it is a descriptive survey, which has been done in the framework of the Delphi method stages. Using purposive sampling, participants or Delphi panel members selected from related experts equal 35 people. In order to formulate Delphi propositions, using an exploratory approach, two focus group sessions were held and 12 members of the Delphi panel participated in each session. Delphi survey stopped after two rounds, right after reaching an acceptable consensus among Delphi panel members. Descriptive tests include mean, standard deviation and mean rank used to analyze the results of the Delphi survey as well as Kendall's coefficient of concordance used to examine the level of consensus among participants. Based on the findings of the Delphi exploration stage, 22 propositions were identified as consequences of population evacuation of rural settlements in South Khorasan province. In summary, the most important research results are: endangering the order and security of migrant cities, disruption of public safety and social security in rural areas, the difficulty of law enforcement management in human and natural disasters in rural area, increased crime and security gaps in rural areas, the unsustainability of food security and threatening the economic security of rural businesses on a regional scale.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Security Consequences
  • Rural-Urban Migration
  • Population Evacuation
  • Rural Geography
  • Delphi Method
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