هموارسازی فضایی نرخ باروری در نواحی روستایی ایران (1395-1390)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه جغرافیا، پردیس علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران.

2 استاد، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، مرکز مطالعات سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

باروری یکی از فرایندهای اساسی جمعیت است که تأثیر مهمی در پویایی و تغییر ساختار جمعیت دارد. کاهش باروری پدیدهای جهانی است؛ در دهه‌های گذشته، کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و امروزه بسیاری از کشورهای درحال‌توسعه آن را تجربه می‌کنند و در ایران نرخ باروری کلی به کمتر از سطح جانشینی رسیده است. برآورد نرخ باروری در نواحی روستایی عمدتاً متأثر از اندازه جمعیت و اندازه واحد فضایی است. به همین دلیل برآورد نرخ باروری و تهیه نقشه در مناطق جغرافیایی کوچک و کم‌جمعیت چالش‌برانگیز است. این پژوهش با هدف برآورد صحیح و شناسایی الگوهای فضایی باروری نواحی روستایی با استفاده از روش‌های هموار‌سازی فضایی برای سال‌های 1395و1390 انجام شده است. برای تحلیل داده‌ها از روش‌های هموارساز بیز تجربی و بیز تجربی فضایی استفاده شد. درحالی‌که میانگین GFR سال‌های 1390 و 1395 به ترتیب 1/51و 6/71 (فرزند به ازای هر 1000 زن) است، یافته‌ها نشان ‌می‌دهد که روش‌های هموارسازی فضایی و به‌ویژه روش بیز تجربی فضایی در برآورد باروری در مناطق کوچک کارایی مناسبی دارد به‌طوری ‌که میزان تعدیل نرخ باروری در مناطق پرجمعیت، کمتر و در مناطق کم‌جمعیت تعدیل قابل‌توجهی را ایجاد می‌کند. نتایج همچنین وقوع باروری بالای روستایی در نواحی مرزی کمتر توسعه‌یافته (جنوب شرق، شرق و جنوب)و گسترش روند باروری پایین روستایی از شمال به جنوب و سپس روستاهای مرکزی و غربی را نشان ‌می‌دهد. تداوم باروری پایین در بخش عمده‌ای از نواحی روستایی، کشور را با چالش‌های جدی در حوزه اقتصادی، اجتماعی، سیاسی روبه‌رو می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial Smoothing of Fertility Rate in Rural Areas of Iran (2011-2016)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehrangiz Rezaee 1
  • Hassan Ali Faraji Sabokbar 2
  • Siamak Tahmasbi 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Campus of Humanities and Social Sciences, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Human Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 MSc. Student, Department of RS & GIS, Center for Remote Sensing & GIS Research, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Fertility is one of the basic processes of the population that has an important effect on the dynamics and change of population structure. The declining burden is a global phenomenon; in the past decades, developed countries and today many developing countries are experiencing it, and in Iran, the overall fertility rate has reached less than the replacement level. Estimation of fertility rate in rural areas is mainly affected by population size and space unit size. Therefore, estimating fertility rates and mapping them in small and sparsely populated geographical areas is challenging. This study aims to accurately estimate and identify spatial patterns of fertility in rural areas using spatial smoothing methods for 2016 and 2011. Experimental Bayes and spatial Bayes smoothing methods were used to analyze the data. While the average GFR of 2011 and 2016 are 51.1 and 71.6 (children per 1000 women), respectively, the findings show that spatial smoothing methods, especially the experimental spatial Bayesian method, have good efficiency in estimating fertility in small areas. Adjusting the fertility rate in densely populated areas is less and in sparsely populated areas it makes a significant adjustment. The results also show the occurrence of high rural fertility in less developed border areas (southeast, east and south) and the spread of low rural fertility from north to south and then the central and western villages. The persistence of low fertility in most of the rural areas is causing serious challenges in the economic, social and political spheres.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fertility rate
  • Spatial smoothing
  • Spatial Empirical Bayes
  • Spatial autocorrelation
  • Rural areas
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