اولویت‌بندی پیشران‌های توسعه کشت محصولات گرمسیری در روستاهای جنوب شرق کشور با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین پتانسیل‌های بخش کشاورزی با‌توجه‌به شرایط آب و هوایی ایران، تولید محصولات گرمسیری در روستاهای جنوب شرق کشور است که می‌تواند نقش بسیار مهمی در تأمین امنیت غذایی، اشتغال و حفظ و پایداری محیط‌زیست منطقه داشته باشد. این امر اهمیت آینده‌پژوهی‌ در حوزه محصولات گرمسیری را روزافزون می‌سازد. در این راستا هدف این پژوهش اولویت‌بندی پیشران‌های مهم توسعه محصولات گرمسیری در مناطق روستایی جنوب شرق کشور (استان‌های سیستان و بلوچستان و هرمزگان) بوده به‌گونه‌ای که ابتدا سناریوهای مختلف تعیین شده و سپس سعی شده با ارائه راهبردهای مؤثر به تثبیت و توسعه این محصولات در روستاهای منطقه کمک شود. روش پژوهش حاضر مبتنی بر آینده‌پژوهی است. در گام نخست شناسایی عوامل کلیدی، به‌وسیله مصاحبه‌های عمیق و هدفمند با 29 نفر از خبرگان بخش کشاورزی انجام گرفته و سپس به تجزیه‌وتحلیل اطلاعات به‌وسیله تشکیل ماتریس آثار متقابل و نرم‌افزار آینده‌پژوهی میک‌مک پرداخته شده و درنهایت سناریوها با استفاده از روش پنل خبرگان با حضور 29 نفر و با نرم‌افزار سناریوویزارد ایجاد شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که از بین پیشران‌ها، شش پیشران توسعه زیرساخت‌ها (حمل‌ونقل، سردخانه، جاده و راه‌آهن)، سیاست‌های بالادستی در حوزه محصولات گرمسیری، تقویت توان صادرات محصولات گرمسیری، استفاده از شیوه‌های نوین تولید، خرید تضمینی محصولات گرمسیری و برندسازی محصولات گرمسیری میزان تأثیرگذاری‌شان بیشتر از میزان تأثیرپذیری‌شان است. بر این اساس پیشنهاد می‌شود که به‌منظور توسعه این محصولات در روستاها حمایت‌های معنوی (سیاست‌های بالادستی) و مادی از تولید این محصولات در دستور کار قرار گرفته و با ایجاد زیرساخت‌ها و معرفی شیوه‌های نوین تولید، زمینه خودکفایی و تأمین نیاز داخلی به این محصولات فراهم شده و با برندسازی، زمینه صادرات این محصولات ایجاد شود. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Prioritization of Drivers for the Development of Tropical Crops in the South-Eastern Villages of the Country with a Future Research Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Soheila Jashari 1
  • Seyed Mahdi Hosseini 2
  • Amir Dadrasmoghadam 2
  • Ebrahim Moradi 2
1 PhD Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

One of the most important potentials of the agricultural sector according to the weather conditions of Iran is the production of tropical products in the villages of the southeast of the country, which can play a very important role in providing food security, employment and preserving and sustaining the environment of the region. This increases the importance of future research in the field of tropical products. In this regard, the aim of this research is to prioritize the important drivers of the development of tropical products in the rural areas of the southeast of the country (provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan and Hormozgan) in such a way that first different scenarios are determined and then it is tried by presenting strategies. To effectively help stabilize and develop these products in the villages of the region. The current research method is based on prospective studies. In the first step, key factors were identified through deep and targeted interviews with 29 experts in the agricultural sector, and then the information was analyzed by forming a matrix of mutual effects and Micmac future research software, and finally, scenarios using The expert panel method was created with the presence of 29 people and with the Scenario Wizard software. The findings show that among the drivers, six drivers are infrastructure development (transportation, cold storage, road and railway), upstream policies in the field of tropical products, strengthening the export potential of tropical products, using New methods of production, guaranteed purchase of tropical products and branding of tropical products are more effective than their effectiveness. Based on this, it is suggested that in order to develop these products in the villages, spiritual (upstream policies) and material support for the production of these products is on the agenda and by creating infrastructure and introducing new production methods, The field of self-sufficiency and supply of domestic demand for these products is provided and with branding, the field of export of these products is created.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sub-structures
  • export
  • Branding
  • Guaranteed purchase
  • Upstream policies
Abbasian, E., Amiri, M., Nayyeri, S., & Jalali Bidgoli, Z. (2021). Designing a policy model of guaranteed wheat purchase in iran. Journal of Public Policy 6(4), 23-41. (In Persian)
Ali Mardani, A., Keshavarz, M., Karmi, R., & Ebrahimi, M. A. (2019). Evaluating the priority and effectiveness of strategies to improve water efficiency and comprehensive development of the agricultural sector in development programs: a case study of Qazvin province. Agricultural Economics and Development, 28(112), 59-91. (In Persian)
Agricultural Jahad Statistics. (2018). (In Persian)
Agricultural Jahad of Sistan and Baluchestan. (2022). (In Persian)
Agricultural statistics letter. (2016-2017). (In Persian)
Anabestani, A., Hosseini Kohnouj, S. R. (2019). Analysis of key drivers effective on employment generation of agricultural and industrial activities in rural areas of Jiroft city. Space Economy and Rural Development 7(26), 37-58. (In Persian)
Aschemann-Witzel, J., Bizzo, H. R., Doria Chaves, A. C. S., Faria-Machado, A. F., Gomes Soares, A., de Oliveira Fonseca, M. J., & Rosenthal, A. (2021). Sustainable use of tropical fruits? Challenges and opportunities of applying the waste-to-value concept to international value chains. Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition, 1-13.‏ 
Asfaw, E., Erko, B., Temasgen, M., & Achamyelh, K. (2020). Production and Marketing Constraints of Major Sub-Tropical Fruits in Jimma Zone, South West Ethiopia.‏
Bagheri, N., Keshavarz Turk, M., Abbasi, F., Abbasi, N., & Bordbar, M. (2020). Futures Studies of Agricultural Engineering Research Institute in 1404. Strategic Research Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, 5(1), 1-18.‏ (In Persian)
Bshrabady, H. M. (2014). Effects of transportation infrastructure development on added value of agricultural sector. Journal of Agricultural Economics Researches, 6(2).‏ (In Persian)
Documents of Sistan and Baluchestan province. (2021). (In Persian)
Fakari Sardhai, B., Shahnooshi, N., Mohammadi, H. (2020). Future research of wheat in Iran. Agricultural economics,14(1), 27-49. (In Persian)
Gravendi, Sh. (2021). Prospective research of villa garden development in agricultural lands (case study: Kermanshah city). Land Management, 9(1), 1-11. (In Persian)
Ghafarimoghadam, Z., Moradi, E., Hashemi Tabar, M., & Sardar Shahraki, A. (2021). An Analysis of the Water Crisis under Different Scenarios in the Agriculture Sector of Sistan Region: the Approach of Future Studies. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture, 35(2), 201-216.‏
Hajiani, A., Ghasaa, M. (2014). Future and scenario planning, classification of methods and classification of scenarios. Quarterly Journal of Social and Cultural Strategy, 2(8). (In Persian)
Hormozgan Investment Development Strategic Document. (2022). Investment and Employment Coordination Office of Hormozgan Governorate. (In Persian)
Hormozgan Governorate. (2023). (In Persian)
Jashari, S., Moradi, A. (2018). Compilation of agricultural economic development strategies in the rural areas of Sistan and Baluchestan province with a future-research approach. Journal of Space Economics and Rural Development, 8(3), 66-51. (In Persian)
Jashari, S., & Esfandiari, M. (2022). Development of macro strategies for the development of agricultural exports with a futures research approach. Strategic Studies of public policy, 12(42), 100-116.‏ (In Persian)
Karim, M. H., Sepaheyan, A., Hosseini, M., Dadars Moghadam, A. (2018). Comparative advantage of mango production in the villages of southeast Iran. Space Economy and Rural Development Quarterly, 8(4). (In Persian)
Kawata, Y., Yusoff, F. M., Khong, N. M., & Umi, D. W. (2021). The economic feasibility assessment of using tropical fruit wastes in production of fish feed for the Malaysian mahseer, Tor tambroides (Bleeker, 1854). Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management, 23, 1026-1036.‏
Khaledi, A., Asadifard, R., Shojaati, A., & Gharibi, J. (2022). Iran’s futures study of agricultural jobs for the horizon 2025. Interdisciplinary Studies in the Humanities, 14(3), 195-226.‏ (In Persian)
Khoshkhoy, M., Grigorian, V., Tafzali, A., Mebli, M., & Omid Beigi, R. (2015). The current situation and providing solutions to improve the quality and quantity of tropical and subtropical fruits of Iran. Journal of strategic research in agricultural sciences and natural resources, 1(2), 108-93. (In Persian)
Mohammadi, Y., & Azizi, M. (2023). Analyzing Why Ago-processing Industries are not Developed in Kamyaran County: Application of the Grounded Theory Method. Journal of Rural Research, 13(4), 716-733. (In Persian)
Nasire Zare, S., & Tahmasebi, A. (2022). An Analysis of Key Drivers of Agricultural Water Resources Governance (Case study: Tarom County, Iran). Journal of Water and Sustainable Development, 9(1), 39-52.‏ (In Persian)
Noroozi, H. O. S. S. E. I. N., Hossein, S. S., & Ansari, V. (2019). Investigating the effects of macroeconomic variables and support policy on the growth of the agricultural sector in Iran. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research (IJAEDR), 49(4).‏ (In Persian)
Pahlavani, M., Moradi, A., Faramarzpour, R. (2013) Compilation and selection of sustainable development strategy of agricultural sector of Sistan and Baluchestan province based on SWOT analysis and QSPM quantitative planning matrix, New Horizons Conference on sustainable development of civil architecture, tourism, energy and urban and rural environment. (In Persian)
Pashaizad, H. (2007). An overview of the Delphi method, Pik Noor, 6(2) (In Persian)
Rouhani, A., Ajarlo, S. (2014). Mic mac software training. Arya Publishing House (In Persian).
Rasoolizadeh, M., Salarpour, M., Borazjani, M. A., Nikkhah, A., Mohamadi, H., & Sarani, V. (2022). Eco-efficiency analysis of selected tropical fruit production systems in Iran. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 19(11), 11169-11182.‏ (In Persian)
Rohani, H., Ghorbani, M., & Kohansal, M. (2021). Analysis of the effective factors on dimensions of sustainable agricultural development in Khorasan Razavi province, using seemingly unrelated regression equations. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 52(1), 33-52.‏ ‏(In Persian)
Rostami, M., Vahedi, M., Arayesh, M. B., & Eshraghi Samani, R. (2021). The role of social institutions in the sustainable development of agriculture Case study:(agricultural bank of Ilam province). Journal of Iranian Social Development Studies, 13(52), 159-175.‏ (In Persian)
Sepahian, A. M., Hosseini, S. M., Dadrasmoghadam, A. (2021). Factors affecting the supply chain network (market) of banana and mango in rural areas (Sistan & Baluchestan Province). Space Economy & Rural Development; 10 (36) :23-48(In Persian)
Sharifzadeh, A., Hosseini, M. (2010). Necessity and fields of application of future research in the promotion and sustainable development of agriculture, the third conference of extension sciences and agricultural education. (In Persian)
Sadeghi Kiadhi, A., Parsai, M., Waqofi, O. (2022). Designing a future-research model: presenting the future image of the organization to develop the organizational learning capability. Future Studies of the Islamic Revolution 1(1), 167-203. (In Persian)
Sandoghi, A., Yadavar, R., Haring, A. M. (2019). Identifying and explaining the drivers of organic agricultural products market development. Economic Research and Agricultural Development of Iran 50(2), 295-310. (In Persian)
Savari, M., Mirzaie, A., & Asadi, Z. (2021). Determination and Prioritization of Barriers to consolidation of Agricultural Land in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 13(4), 111-133.‏ (In Persian)
Shirooyehpour, S., & Fazli, S. (2022). from Forecasting to Foresight: basing the Methodology of Futures Studies on Research Onion Model. Methodology of Social Sciences and Humanities,28(113), 31-50.‏ (In Persian)
Shafieisabet, N., & Mirvahedi, N. (2022). Future Studies of Rural-Urban Linkage Benefits for Sustainable Food Security (Case Study: Rural Settlements in Southeast of Tehran Province). Journal of Rural Research, 13(2), 284-297.‏ (In Persian)
Sistan and Baluchestan Governorate. (2023).
Slaughter, R. (1996). New thinking for a new millennium. London: Routledge.
Teklo, A., Shams al-Dini, A., Rahmani, B., & Wali Shariat Panahi, M. (2019). Future research of human resources development in the agricultural sector in rural areas (Case: Central part of Malair city). Geography, 18(67), 88-103. (In Persian)
Varmazyari, H., Rostami, F., Samadi, M., Bani Asadi, M. (2016). Analyzing obstacles and solutions for the development of agricultural industries justice in Iran, Journal of Economic Research and Agricultural Development of Iran, 2(2), 820-888(In Persian)
Villacís-Chiriboga, J., Elst, K., Van Camp, J., Vera, E., & Ruales, J. (2020). Valorization of byproducts from tropical fruits: Extraction methodologies, applications, environmental, and economic assessment: A review (Part 1: General overview of the byproducts, traditional biorefinery practices, and possible applications). Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety, 19(2), 405-447.‏