ارائه مدلی برای شبیه‌سازی عوامل مؤثر بر توسعه گردشگری روستایی (موردمطالعه: مجموعه روستاهای ده‌بالا شهرستان تفت)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

چکیده

توسعه مطلوب صنعت گردشگری روستایی نیازمند آگاهی و شناخت کافی از مسائل و عوامل مؤثر آن است. در همین راستا، پژوهش حاضر باهدف اراﺋﻪ ﻣﺪﻟﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺘﻮاﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ در نظر گرفتن ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ مؤثر، توسعه گردشگری در مجموعه روستاهای ده‌بالا شهرستان تفت را شبیه‌سازی ﮐﻨﺪ، انجام گرفت. روش پژوهش حاضر روش آمیخته (کیفی و کمی) که ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و از حیث ماهیت و روش، توصیفی تحلیلی بود. جامعه آماری در بخش کیفی شامل، اساتید دانشگاه، مدیران گردشگری و در بخش کمی شامل اساتید دانشگاه بود. در بخش کیفی نمونه‌گیری با روش گلوله‌برفی تا دستیابی به اشباع نظری و در بخش کمی به شیوه قضاوتی انجام شد. اﺑﺰار ﮔﺮدآوری داده‌ها، ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ و ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ بود. در ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ مضمون ﺑﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ عوامل مؤثر بر توسعه گردشگری روستایی ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ عوامل مؤثر شناسایی‌شده ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش دلفی فازی اولویت‌بندی شد و درنهایت در ﺑﺨﺶ کمی ﻣﺪل توسعه گردشگری روستایی ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روﯾﮑﺮد مدل‌سازی ﻋﺎﻣﻞ مبنا شبیه‌سازی شده است. ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ داده‌های ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ در ﻓﺎز ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﺑﺎ نرم‌افزار Maxqda20 و در ﻓﺎز ﮐﻤﯽ ﺑﺎ نرم‌افزارهای Excel و AnyLogic اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. تحلیل داده‌ها، ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ شناسایی 44 کد اولیه، 10 مضمون فرعی و 4 مضمون اﺻﻠﯽ (مدیریتی، زیرساختی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی) شد که عامل مدیریتی به‌عنوان تأثیرگذارترین عامل شناخته شد و  همچنین نتایج نشان داد در پایان دوره شبیه‌سازی، میزان توسعه گردشگری این مجموعه روستایی، بیش از 95 درصد ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. باتوجه‌به نتایج پژوهش حاضر، مطلوب است تا مدیران گردشگری توجه ویژه‌ای روی عوامل مؤثر شناسایی‌شده که نقش بسزایی در توسعه گردشگری روستایی دارند، داشته باشند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Presenting a Model for Simulating Rural Tourism Development Determinants (Case Study: Deh-e Bala Villages, Taft County, Iran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Rahimi Klour 1
  • Seyed Ali Naghavi 2
1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Business Administration, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
2 PhD Student, Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The ideal development of the rural tourism industry requires an extensive knowledge of its key determinants and the associated issues. Against this background, this study was to present a model for simulating rural tourism development (RTD) in Deh-e Bala villages, Taft County, Yazd, Iran, given the major determinants. Utilizing a mixed-methods (qualitative-quantitative) approach, this applied study implemented a descriptive-analytical design. The statistical population in the qualitative part comprised university professors and tourism managers, but only university professors were recruited in the quantitative part. Snowball sampling was also practiced to reach theoretical saturation in the qualitative part, while purposive sampling was performed in the quantitative one. The data collection tools included interviews and questionnaires. In the qualitative part, thematic analysis was completed to identify the RTD determinants, which were then prioritized via the fuzzy Delphi method (FDM). At last, the RTD model was simulated in the quantitative part through agent-based modeling (ABM). The data analysis was done using the MAXQDA 20 software in the qualitative part and the Microsoft Excel and AnyLogic software packages in the quantitative one, contributing to the emergence of 44 primary codes, ten sub-themes, and four main themes (i.e., managerial, infrastructural, economic, and social factors). In this context, the managerial factor was labeled the most effective one. Moreover, the simulation output revealed that the RTD rate in Deh-e Bala villages, Taft County, Yazd, Iran, was over 95%. Along with the study results, tourism managers are suggested to dedicate much more attention to the key determinants and their leading roles in RTD.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Development
  • Tourism
  • Village
  • Taft County
  • Simulation
Aali, N., & Sadeghi, L. (2021). An Assessment of the Influence of Different Factors on the Rural Ecotourism Development (Case study: Oramanat tourist route). Journal of Housing and Rural Environment, 40  (174), 15-28. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22034/40.174.15
Bel, F., Lacroix, A., Lyser, S., Rambonilaza, T., & Turpin, N. (2015). Domestic demand for tourism in rural areas: Insights from summer stays in three French Regions Stays in Three French Regions. Journal of Tourism Management, 46(1), 562-570. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2014.07.020
Ebrahimpour, H., & Roshandel Arbatani, T. (2011). A Survay of Factors Influencing on  Tourism based on Expects and Conceptions and Gap Analysis (Case Study: Sareien Tourism City in Ardabili). Journal of Business Management, 3(2), 1-22. (In Persian) https://dor.org/20.1001.1.20085907.1390.3.2.1.2
Fahimi, A., Akadiri, S., Seraj, M., & Akadiri, A.C. (2018). Testing the role of tourism and human capital development in economic growth. A panel causality study of micro states. Tourism Management Perspectives, 28(1), 62-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2018.08.004
Ghorbaniyan Anarzadeh, A., Estelaji, A., & Taj, S. (2018). Analyzing the Role of Policy in Development Tourism in Rural areas, Case Studies dehbala rural, province of Taft. Journal of Geography (Regional Planning), 7(29), 193-213. (In Persian) https://dor.org/20.1001.1.22286462.1396.8.1.11.4
Heydari Sarban, V. (2017). Factors Improvement ofRural Tourism Development from the Perspective of Local People, Case Study: Ardabil County. Journal of Tourism and Development, 6(3), 177-198. (In Persian)
Huo, T., Yuan, F., Huo, M., Shao, Y., Li, S., & Li, Z. (2023). Residents' participation in rural tourism and interpersonal trust in tourists: The mediating role of residents’ perceptions of tourism impacts. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 54(1), 457-471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2023.02.011
Karimzadeh, H., & Valaei, M. (2021). Analyzing the Role of Tourism Development in Boosting Small Rural Revenues Case Study: Barough District, Miandoab County. Journal of Tourism and Development, 10(3), 147-166. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22034/jtd.2021.207527.1868
Khodapanah, K. (2023). Analysis of Effective and Promoting Factors of Rural Tourism Development from the Perspective of Villagers (Case Study: Hiran District, Astara Township). Physical Social Planning, 10(1), 103-116. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.30473/psp.2023.64008.2605
Kumar, S., Valeri, M., & Shekhar, A. (2022). Understanding the relationship among factors influencing rural tourism: a hierarchical approach. Journal of Organizational Change Management, 35(2), 385-407. https://doi.org/10.1108/JOCM-01-2021-0006
Luo, W., Timothy, D., Zhong, C., & Zhang, X. (2022). Influential factors in agrarian households' engagement in rural tourism development, Tourism Management Perspectives, 44(4), 90-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2022.101009
Ma, X., Wang, R., Ling Dai, M., Ou, Y. (2022). The action logic and interpretation framework of residents’ resistance in rural tourism development. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 51(1), 79-87, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2022.02.031
Mohammadi, K., Mohammadzadeh Nasirabadi, M., & Sharghi, T. (2019). Identifying and Investigating Factors Affecting Sustainable Development of Rural Tourism (Case Study: Zarrabad Village, East Alamut Section of Qazvin). Rural Development Strategies, 6(4), 427-443. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22048/rdsj.2020.204571.1820
Sharifinia, Z. (2020). The Key Effective Factors on Sustainable Development of Tourism in Rural Areas through a Scenario-based Approach (Case Study: Mazandaran Province). Journal of Geography and Regional Development, 18(1), 281-304. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22067/geography.v18i1.85282
Sogandi, F. (2023). Investigating the Effective Factors on the Development of Rural Tourism Focusing on the Role of Corona Virus (Case Study of Bozhan Village, Neishabour City). Rural Development Strategies, 10(1), 94-109. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22048/rdsj.2022.330043.2002
Song, H., Dwyer, L., Li, G., & Cao, Z. (2012). Tourism economics research: A review and assessment. Annals of tourism research, 39(3), 1653-1682. https://doi.org/ 1016/j.annals.2012.05.023
Stabler, M. J., Papatheodorou, A., & Sinclair, M. T. (2010). The economics of tourism (2nd ed.). Abingdon: Routledge.
Sun, A., Chen, L., Yoshida, K., & Qu, M. (2023). Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Bed and Breakfasts in the All-for-One Tourism Demonstration Area of China: A Perspective on Urban–Rural Differences. Journal of Land, 12(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3390/ land12091720
Taghdisi, A., Varesi, H. R., Ahmadian, M., & Asgari, H. (2015). Identify and Analysis the Factors Affecting Development of Tourism in Rural Areas (Case Study: Rural Areas of Jiroft County). Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 4(1), 1-14. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22067/JRRP.V4I9.22867
Weng, G., Pan, Y., & Li, J. (2021). Study on the Influencing Factors and Acting Path of the Sustainable Development of Rural Tourism Based on EEAM-ISM Model. Journal of Sustainability, 13(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/su13105682
Yang, X., & Xu, H. (2022). Producing an ideal village: Imagined rurality, tourism and rural gentrification in China. Journal of Rural Studies, 96(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.10.005