Analysis of the Key Factors Affecting the Formation of Spatial Planning Patterns in Rural Areas Based on the Foresight Approach: A Case Study of Lorestan

Document Type : Research Paper


1 PhD candidate, Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate prof., Dep. of Human Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

3 Prof., Dep. of Human Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

4 Associate prof., Urban Planning Dep., Faculty of Architecture & Art, University of Guilan, Guilan, Iran.


Rural development programs based on different patterns in Lorestan province did not have the expected effect on the economic prosperity and improvement of villagers' life. Socially, they had no success to establish the participation of villagers and their empowerment either. In order to eliminate these shortcomings from the rural areas of the province, it is necessary to identify and analyze the key factors in presenting a rural spatial planning pattern through a foresight approach. In this research, Delphi and panel techniques together with the analysis of interactions were implemented with the MicMac software to identify and analyze the key factors involved in designing a pattern for rural spatial planning. The results showed that, out of 40 main problems in rural programs, 13 factors are the most important ones to affect the design of a pattern for the rural areas of Lorestan. These factors include rural perspective, futurism, environment, rural economic structure, rural governance, alternative scenarios, features of the regions, land use planning, rural participation, spatial development principles, rural, local capacity and social capital, rural management, and convergence-divergence of the sectors.


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