Analyzing the Future Uncertainties of Social Resilience of Rural Communities by Exploring the Existing Realities in the Framework of Scenario Planning (Case Study: Fahlian Village)

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht Branch, Marvdasht, Iran.

2 PhD, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.


The present study is applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of method, it is exploratory and based on the future research approach and has been conducted in the period of October 2021. The present study, by implementing the resilience framework, develops a community approach to optimize containment programs and mitigation policies using effective indicators in rural social resilience with a case study of Fahlian village with a future approach. It provides research on the prevalence of epidemics. 35 key variables were identified by the Delphi method. Then these variables were prioritized based on the degree of importance and uncertainty using Micmac software and the most critical factors were identified and the wizard scripting software was used to write possible scenarios. The statistical population of this study is 31 experts in the field of rural issues. The results showed that the variables of diet, income, poor health facilities, lifestyle, ability to compensate, inflation and poverty in the village of Fahlian are the most important variables of social resilience in dealing with the spread of the disease. Infectious diseases and coronas were identified and then the main social resilience scenarios were defined by Wizard Scenario software, which was a favorable and promising situation. The most important proposal for the resilience of this village in the face of infectious diseases is to help the authorities to attract health facilities and also attract specialized doctors to address the medical issues of Fahlian village and Nurabad city.


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