Presenting a Model for Simulating Rural Tourism Development Determinants: The Case Study of Deh-e Bala Villages, Taft County, Iran

The ideal development of the rural tourism industry requires an extensive knowledge of its key determinants and the associated issues. Against this background, this study was to present a model for simulating rural tourism development (RTD) in Deh-e Bala villages, Taft County, Yazd, Iran, in view of the major determinants. Utilizing a mixed-methods (qualitative-quantitative) approach, this applied study implemented a descriptive-analytical design. The statistical population in the qualitative part comprised of university professors and tourism managers, but just university professors were recruited in the quantitative part. Snowball sampling was also practiced to reach theoretical saturation in the qualitative part, while purposive sampling was performed in the quantitative one. The data collection tools included interviews and questionnaires. In the qualitative part, thematic analysis was completed to identify the RTD determinants, which were then prioritized via the fuzzy Delphi method (FDM). At last, the RTD model was simulated in the quantitative part through agent-based modeling (ABM). The data analysis was done using the MAXQDA 20 software in the qualitative part, and the Microsoft Excel and AnyLogic software packages in the quantitative one, contributing to the emergence of 44 primary codes, 10 sub-themes, and four main themes (i.e., managerial, infrastructural, economic, and social factors). In this context, the managerial factor was labeled as the most effective one. Moreover, the simulation output revealed that the RTD rate in Deh-e Bala villages, Taft County, Yazd, Iran, was over 95%. Along with the study results, tourism managers are suggested to dedicate much more attention to the key determinants as well as their leading roles in RTD.
1. Introduction
Along the lines of environmental conditions, there are numerous forms of tourism, including rural tourism, that are over a century old. Given the rapid expansion of cities in Iran and the problems caused by increased urbanization as well as the gradually emptier villages and the influx of populations from rural areas to cities, there is a need to seek for solutions to deal with such issues. Thus, formulating policies for rural tourism development (RTD) provides a useful tool for sustainable rural development and stops people from moving to urban areas, by creating jobs and generating income. To attract more tourists and develop tourism, it is further necessary to make good policies and do basic planning. Among the tourist destinations in Yazd Province, Iran, are Deh-e Bala villages in Taft County, which can pave the ground for reducing immigration thanks to their high ecotourism potential, create employment opportunities, increase income, boost infrastructure, and affect the environment. Against this background, this study presents a model for simulating RTD in Deh-e Bala villages in Taft County, Yazd, Iran, in view of the effective factors.
2. Methodology
Utilizing a mixed-methods (qualitative and quantitative) approach, this applied study adopted a descriptive-analytical research design. The statistical population in the qualitative phase consisted of university professors and tourism managers, but only university professors were recruited in the quantitative phase. Snowball sampling was used (due to the high number of experts in this field and the possibility that the researchers may not know all) to reach theoretical saturation in the qualitative phase, while judgmental (purposive) sampling was done in the quantitative phase. The measurement tools administered in the qualitative and quantitative phases were interviews and questionnaires, in that order. The validity of the interviews in the qualitative phase was investigated using Q-sorting, and their reliability was checked and confirmed by Cohen’s kappa coefficient. During the quantitative phase, the validity of the questionnaires was further evaluated using relative content validity, and their reliability was determined based on the test-retest method, and then confirmed. In this study, thematic analysis was additionally implemented to analyze the specialized interviews, and the identified effective factors were prioritized using the fuzzy Delphi method (FDM). As a final point, the model for RTD was simulated through agent-based modeling (ABM). The data analysis was fulfilled via MAXQDA 20 software in the qualitative phase, and Microsoft Excel and AnyLogic software packages in the quantitative one.
3. Results
The data analysis led to the discovery of 44 primary codes, 10 sub-themes, and four main themes (namely, managerial, infrastructural, economic, and social factors). In this sense, the managerial factor was in the first priority as the most effective one. Besides, the simulation output demonstrated that the proposed model could adequately estimate the future of RTD in Deh-e Bala villages, Taft County, Yazd, Iran.

4. Discussion
As evidenced, all managerial, infrastructural, economic, and social factors could significantly contribute to RTD, but in varying degrees. Notably, their prioritization was merely done to gain a better understanding and shed light on the most effective factors in this domain. The study results showed that the RTD rate in Deh-e Bala villages of Taft County, Yazd, Iran, was higher than 95% at the conclusion of the simulation period. Therefore, it was supposed that the given factors could give rise to RTD if taken into consideration within the policies and measures of the relevant trustees. In line with the RTD simulation outputs, the managers involved in the tourism industry and rural organizations are thus expected to implement the proposed model as a general policy in Deh-e Bala villages. In this way, the desired model can be employed in a certain time period, and its power to augment the effectiveness of RTD is measured. If this model accelerates development in practice, it can be followed in the future.
5. Conclusion
With regard to the study findings, rural tourism managers are suggested to reflect on the effective factors identified in this study in their development plans and the RTD horizons in the long term. It is noteworthy that incorporating these factors into development plans might not bring about complete development; therefore, it is necessary to get to the bottom of this issue by paying attention to other contributing factors that are not sometimes within this system.