Hierarchical Analysis of Factors Affecting Milk Quality and Quantity in Kermanshah Province Based on the Value Chain Loops

Abstract
Milk is a significant source of income for villagers and plays a crucial role in improving their quality of life, as well as society's health and food security. However, the current quality and quantity standards of milk fall short of marketplace expectations, leading to market confusion. Therefore, a study was conducted to identify and prioritize factors that could enhance the quality and quantity of milk in Kermanshah province. The study used a sequential-exploratory research design, with 11 experts selected for the qualitative phase, and the managers of 10 active dairy industries, as well as the owners of 104 dairy cattle units, selected for the quantitative phase. Data was collected through a researcher-made questionnaire and analyzed using Excel, SPSS, and Expert-Choice software. The study found that factors affecting the value chain of milk could be identified in four general criteria: initial activities, policy-making issues, economic issues, and infrastructure. Ultimately, different factors essential for improving milk quality and quantity were identified in each criterion.
Keywords: Milk quality and quantity, Value chain, Hierarchical analysis, Kermanshah

Introduction
Achieving sustainable development requires attention to improving livelihoods, reducing poverty in rural areas, and increasing the ability of villagers to meet their needs (Ahmadzai et al., 2021; Sjaf et al., 2021). Governments have implemented many efforts to improve the livelihood of rural residents (Nourbakhsh & Salehi, 2021). However, evidence and field experiences suggest that these plans have had limited success in achieving their main goal of improving livelihoods and sustainable development of rural areas. This issue can be caused by factors such as lack of communication and infrastructure facilities, shortage of trained human resources, political-administrative obstacles, financial-administrative obstacles (Rahimian et al., 2022), risk aversion and unwillingness to invest, lack of transformational industries, weak social participation (Mohammadi & Azizi, 2023), and even climate changes, which deeply affect the livelihood of villagers (Tohidimoghadam et al., 2023).
Meanwhile, livestock farming is vital in Iran, serving as a key livelihood diversification strategy due to its adaptability to local climates. It not only enhances farmers' incomes but also secures food and promotes independence. By generating jobs, providing essential nutrients through meat and milk, utilizing natural resources efficiently, empowering rural women, and fostering clean energy access, it drives sustainable growth and entrepreneurial opportunities. A significant number of opportunities in the industry are related to milk and dairy products. Therefore, the quality and quantity of milk produced by farms hold a special place in the industry's value chain (FAO, 2023a). Thus, systematically identifying factors that influence the quantitative and qualitative improvement of milk across its value chain can not only prevent the current downtrend in milk production but also, through context-based planning, initiate an upward trend in this regard.

Methodology
The study has an applied aim, uses field data collection methods, and is classified as mixed inductive research with an exploratory sequential design (Mohammadpour et al., 2010). The study followed the process outlined in Diagram (1). The quantitative phase was conducted on the managers of 10 active dairy industry units in Kermanshah province and owners of 114 dairy farming units in the province. The sample was selected through a census (n=114). For the qualitative phase, we included 11 subject matter experts. The sample consisted of 5 faculty members from Razi University's Agricultural Campus and 6 managers and stakeholders in the milk value chain from the Kermanshah provincial administration. We selected them through purposive snowball sampling until data saturation was achieved. The study was conducted between 2019 and 2021. Data were analyzed using NVivo11, SPSSVer22, EXCELVer2019, and Expert Choice software.



Diagram 1- Research Execution Process from Content Analysis to AHP Analysis

Results
Research findings indicate that the quantity and quality of milk depend on four criteria and 33 options. These criteria and options are briefly outlined below.
Initial Actions focused on the factors that have a direct impact on the quality and quantity of milk produced on dairy farms. These factors include animal health, maintenance, and nutrition. The most important factor in this criterion is providing the necessary nutritional resources for livestock, which carries a weight of 0.215. Periodic health checks are also important and carry a weight of 0.123, followed by diet formulation by specialists, which carries a weight of 0.121.
Economic Issues: Based on the statistical analysis (Diagram 1), it has been found that the most significant factor affecting the quantity and quality of milk production is the low price of milk in comparison to the costs incurred for human resources such as labor, veterinary care, and dietitian specialists (weighted at 0.220). The high cost of livestock feed is the second most important factor (weighted at 0.181), followed by fluctuations in the price of milk and its products (weighted at 0.167), increased production costs due to the acquisition of milking equipment and standard transportation tools to the market (weighted at 0.155), and a shortage of liquidity among producers (weighted at 0.085).



Diagram 1 - The relative weight of each option under the economic issues criterion (Source: Research findings)

Conclusion
This study utilizes pairwise comparison methods to investigate and determine factors that are important to the rural livestock keepers in the milk value chain. The research aims to create a conceptual model of the milk value chain, taking into account the necessary processes for production and marketing. It then seeks to identify the factors that affect the quantitative and qualitative improvement of milk at each stage of the chain. The results of this research could be used to inform rural planning in Kermanshah province, as well as other provinces with comparable climatic, economic, and industrial characteristics.