آینده‌پژوهی پیامدهای انتقال آب چاه‌های عمیق تایباد به سنگ معدن سنگان خواف بر نواحی روستایی شهرستان تایباد

A B S T R A C T
The growth of industry, the extraction of finite resources, and climate change have disrupted the balance of the biosphere. This disruption continues despite the increasing allocation of water to the industrial sector and, in some regions, the diversion of agricultural water resources for industrial purposes. The ongoing challenges to food security pose a significant threat to rural livelihoods. The low-rainfall city of Taibad, located in the eastern part of the country, has been engaged in transferring water from existing deep wells to the Sangan Khaf ore site. This article examines the future implications of transferring water from the deep wells of Taibad to the surrounding rural areas. The necessary data were collected through both library research and field methods and analyzed using Micmac, Scenario Wizard, Vensim software, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model. The research findings indicated that, out of eighteen potential situations related to five scenarios with strong compatibility, the situations highlighting the consequences of transferring water from the deep wells of Taibad to the Sangan Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taibad—currently on the brink of crisis—are the most likely to occur. These situations are significant. Consequently, the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taibad to the Sangan Khaf ore was identified as the most appropriate course of action, given the critical state of water resources in Taibad and the insufficient replenishment of the city's aquifers
 A B S T R A C T
The growth of industry, the extraction of finite resources, and climate change have disrupted the balance of the biosphere. This disruption continues despite the increasing allocation of water to the industrial sector and, in some regions, the diversion of agricultural water resources for industrial purposes. The ongoing challenges to food security pose a significant threat to rural livelihoods. The low-rainfall city of Taibad, located in the eastern part of the country, has been engaged in transferring water from existing deep wells to the Sangan Khaf ore site. This article examines the future implications of transferring water from the deep wells of Taibad to the surrounding rural areas. The necessary data were collected through both library research and field methods and analyzed using Micmac, Scenario Wizard, Vensim software, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model. The research findings indicated that, out of eighteen potential situations related to five scenarios with strong compatibility, the situations highlighting the consequences of transferring water from the deep wells of Taibad to the Sangan Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taibad—currently on the brink of crisis—are the most likely to occur. These situations are significant. Consequently, the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taibad to the Sangan Khaf ore was identified as the most appropriate course of action, given the critical state of water resources in Taibad and the insufficient replenishment of the city's aquifers.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Water transfer initiatives are being implemented in various parts of the world to address challenges related to water resources. In recent years, the water resources of the arid city of Taybad, primarily sourced from deep wells, have been redirected to the Sangan Khaf mining area. As a result, the residents of Taybad's villages, who depend on agriculture and animal husbandry, have faced unemployment and have migrated to Taybad city or larger urban centers such as Mashhad, Karaj, and northern cities in Iran, becoming entangled in the complexities of urban settlement. Furthermore, the indiscriminate extraction of water from deep wells in Taybad has resulted in several environmental issues, including a decline in underground aquifer levels, land subsidence, and a water crisis in the region. This article will explore the potential future consequences of transferring water from Taybad's deep wells to the Sangan Khaf mining area, with a particular emphasis on the impact on the rural communities surrounding Taybad, based on the most probable scenarios.
 
Methodology
The present research is applied in nature. The required data was collected by library and survey methods and analyzed with a quantitative-qualitative combined approach and structural analysis and using Micmac, Scenario Wizar software and AHP Model. In the upcoming research, first by referring to library sources, the most important consequences of the transfer of Tabiad deep wells to Sangan Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taibad city were identified and through interviews with experts, who were selected by purposeful sampling and continued until information saturation. Their accuracy was checked. Then, a researcher-made questionnaire was adjusted in the form of an impact analysis matrix, and in the Micmac software, the degree of connection of the variables with the relevant field was identified by the experts, and eight variables were identified as the key variables of the research. A total of 32 modes were considered for eight key variables. Based on the key variables and its various modes, a cross-sectional questionnaire was designed and made available to the research statistical community. Completed questionnaires were entered in the Scenario wizard software through the Ensemble command. Future scenarios of the consequences of the transfer of Taibad deep wells to Sangan Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taibad city were identified and scenarios with strong compatibility were analyzed. Suitable solutions were formulated with the most probable scenario.
 
Results and discussion
In this research, firstly, with library studies, background checks and interviews with research experts, the consequences of the transfer of water from deep wells of Taybad to Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taybad were identified and using Micmac software, eight variables were identified: decrease in the water level of underground aquifers, subsidence land, the depopulation of Taybad villages, the intensification of social tension over water, the threat of food security, the aggravation of the economic inequality of resident, the spread of desertification and the decrease of trust of the residents of Taybad villages in the deep wells of Taybad city. In the words, the output of this software identified the eight key drivers influencing the transfer of deep wells of Taybad to khaf ore in the rural areas of Taybad. The way the variables are distributed in the scatter plane shows the instability of the system. With the perspectives of the future research, for the key drivers, different states from three to five assumptions and a total of 30 possible states were designed and entered into the scenario wizard software, and the table of possible scenario is the output of this software.
 
Conclusion
The results of the research showed that the probability of negative events (situation on the threshold of crisis and crisis) is more than positive events (optimal and semi-optimal situation). In such a way that 61.1% of the situations on the scenario page are in a critical state and on the verge of crisis. The output of the scenario wizard software showed that the scenario "the consequences of the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taybad to Khafav ore on the rural areas of Taybad is on the brink of crisis", was recognized as the most likely scenario. The important issue in discussing the future scenarios of the consequences of the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taybad to Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taybad is that those involved in the (influential) field can have a suitable solution for the most probable possible scenario. In other words, brokers should have a better understanding of the current situation and take appropriate solutions based on it. Therefore, solutions should be provided to actors that are somehow compatible with the situation on the verge of crisis and move the situation towards a more favorable state. In this regard, "stopping the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taibad to Khaf ore due to the criticality of water resources in Taibad city and the weakness in feeding the aquifers of this city", according to the experts, it was considered the most suitable solution. Therefore, the sustainable management of current and future resource allocation should be taken into consideration at the national and international scale (Taibad city). The findings of the upcoming research can be used for awareness and planning by the organizations and brokers involved.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Water transfer initiatives are being implemented in various parts of the world to address challenges related to water resources. In recent years, the water resources of the arid city of Taybad, primarily sourced from deep wells, have been redirected to the Sangan Khaf mining area. As a result, the residents of Taybad's villages, who depend on agriculture and animal husbandry, have faced unemployment and have migrated to Taybad city or larger urban centers such as Mashhad, Karaj, and northern cities in Iran, becoming entangled in the complexities of urban settlement. Furthermore, the indiscriminate extraction of water from deep wells in Taybad has resulted in several environmental issues, including a decline in underground aquifer levels, land subsidence, and a water crisis in the region. This article will explore the potential future consequences of transferring water from Taybad's deep wells to the Sangan Khaf mining area, with a particular emphasis on the impact on the rural communities surrounding Taybad, based on the most probable scenarios.
 
Methodology
The present research is applied in nature. The required data was collected by library and survey methods and analyzed with a quantitative-qualitative combined approach and structural analysis and using Micmac, Scenario Wizar software and AHP Model. In the upcoming research, first by referring to library sources, the most important consequences of the transfer of Tabiad deep wells to Sangan Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taibad city were identified and through interviews with experts, who were selected by purposeful sampling and continued until information saturation. Their accuracy was checked. Then, a researcher-made questionnaire was adjusted in the form of an impact analysis matrix, and in the Micmac software, the degree of connection of the variables with the relevant field was identified by the experts, and eight variables were identified as the key variables of the research. A total of 32 modes were considered for eight key variables. Based on the key variables and its various modes, a cross-sectional questionnaire was designed and made available to the research statistical community. Completed questionnaires were entered in the Scenario wizard software through the Ensemble command. Future scenarios of the consequences of the transfer of Taibad deep wells to Sangan Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taibad city were identified and scenarios with strong compatibility were analyzed. Suitable solutions were formulated with the most probable scenario.
 
Results and discussion
In this research, firstly, with library studies, background checks and interviews with research experts, the consequences of the transfer of water from deep wells of Taybad to Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taybad were identified and using Micmac software, eight variables were identified: decrease in the water level of underground aquifers, subsidence land, the depopulation of Taybad villages, the intensification of social tension over water, the threat of food security, the aggravation of the economic inequality of resident, the spread of desertification and the decrease of trust of the residents of Taybad villages in the deep wells of Taybad city. In the words, the output of this software identified the eight key drivers influencing the transfer of deep wells of Taybad to khaf ore in the rural areas of Taybad. The way the variables are distributed in the scatter plane shows the instability of the system. With the perspectives of the future research, for the key drivers, different states from three to five assumptions and a total of 30 possible states were designed and entered into the scenario wizard software, and the table of possible scenario is the output of this software.
 
Conclusion
The results of the research showed that the probability of negative events (situation on the threshold of crisis and crisis) is more than positive events (optimal and semi-optimal situation). In such a way that 61.1% of the situations on the scenario page are in a critical state and on the verge of crisis. The output of the scenario wizard software showed that the scenario "the consequences of the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taybad to Khafav ore on the rural areas of Taybad is on the brink of crisis", was recognized as the most likely scenario. The important issue in discussing the future scenarios of the consequences of the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taybad to Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taybad is that those involved in the (influential) field can have a suitable solution for the most probable possible scenario. In other words, brokers should have a better understanding of the current situation and take appropriate solutions based on it. Therefore, solutions should be provided to actors that are somehow compatible with the situation on the verge of crisis and move the situation towards a more favorable state. In this regard, "stopping the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taibad to Khaf ore due to the criticality of water resources in Taibad city and the weakness in feeding the aquifers of this city", according to the experts, it was considered the most suitable solution. Therefore, the sustainable management of current and future resource allocation should be taken into consideration at the national and international scale (Taibad city). The findings of the upcoming research can be used for awareness and planning by the organizations and brokers involved.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.