ارزیابی روستاهای گردشگری ایران از لحاظ آسیب‌پذیری ژئوفیزیکی با استفاده از سناریوهای فازی

A B S T R A C T
Part of the development of tourist villages depends on the environmental parameters and their optimal management. In this context, geophysical damages can be a clear example of factors and natural hazards that are effective in the development of tourist villages. Therefore, the recognition and analysis of tourist villages in terms of geophysical vulnerability can be very important, and action should be in line with environmental planning and crisis prevention. In this research, this topic has been done for Iran's tourism target villages based on fuzzy scenarios in GIS. The analytical-quantitative research method compiles and analyzes data based on fuzzy logic scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, and balanced) in GIS. In this research, geophysical variables, including active faults, soil texture and granularity, flood plains, protected areas, Landslide points, Land slope, and geological formations, were used. The results showed that more than 543 Tourist villages of Iran in the pessimistic scenario have a maximum geophysical vulnerability with a value of one; 201 villages in the balanced scenario have a maximum vulnerability with a maximum value equal to 0.7, and in the optimistic scenario, 98 villages have the maximum geophysical vulnerability with a value of 1. Also, examining the spatial distribution pattern of Iran's tourist villages in terms of geophysical vulnerability in three pessimistic, balanced, and optimistic scenarios through Moran's index showed that the dominant spatial pattern is a cluster. As a result, the vulnerability of tourist villages is influenced by various geographical factors such as roads, formations, topography, landslides, etc. Consequently, significant touristic villages are exposed to geophysical risks, which should be adopted according to the priority for risk management and prevention
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Part of the development of tourist villages depends on the environmental parameters and their optimal management. In this context, geophysical damages can be a clear example of factors and natural hazards that are effective in the development of tourist villages. Knowing and prioritizing tourist villages based on geophysical criteria can be a positive step in this field. According to the available statistics, there are more than 980 tourist villages in Iran. Of course, this number changes occasionally and is based on various managerial decisions. This number of tourist villages, each with a special geographical location, shows the necessity of investigating the issue. Therefore, in line with the planning and management of the development of tourist villages, an important part of this development depends on the management of environmental and geophysical issues. Thus, the recognition and analysis of tourist villages in terms of geophysical vulnerability can be very important, and action should be in line with environmental planning and crisis prevention. In this research, this topic has been done for Iran's tourism target villages based on fuzzy scenarios in GIS.
 
Methodology
The research method is based on the descriptive-analytical nature and based on the practical and usable goal for environmental planning and prevention of possible threats and crises. Data analysis is designed and implemented based on fuzzy scenario writing in GIS. Explaining that by examining the characteristics of tourist villages, available data, and previous studies, in order to evaluate and prioritize geophysical vulnerability from seven variables of distance from active geological faults, soil characteristics (texture and grain size), the characteristics of geological formations based on the period, distance from flood plains, distance from protected areas, distance from landslides and land slope are used. Also, in order to prepare the data, apply any analysis and processing on these data, and combine the final maps, ArcGIS software was used. In short, the steps of conducting the present research are as follows:
First, the initial data was identified, and then their preparation was done; next, a map of each parameter was prepared. In the next step, environmental data was standardized using fuzzy membership functions. The next stage of the research is the weighting of standardized environmental data using the hierarchical analysis process method. Next, geophysical vulnerability assessment and prioritization were done using optimistic, balanced, and pessimistic scenarios. In the end, tourist villages were presented in terms of geophysical vulnerability based on each scenario using different maps.
 
Results and discussion
In this research, Iran's tourism villages, which have more than 980 villages, whose number has changed periodically and based on various management decisions, have been investigated in terms of geophysical vulnerability. The analysis of the results shows that a large part of Iran's tourist villages is exposed to maximum geophysical vulnerability. Thus, in the pessimistic scenario, more than 543 villages, in the balanced scenario, 201 villages, and in the optimistic scenario, 98 villages out of a total of 980 villages have been exposed to maximum vulnerability between 0.7 and 1. Three types of criteria are distance from the fault, distance from the flood plains, and distance from the landslide points, each of which creates a type of natural hazard and has played the most significant impact and role in increasing the vulnerability of tourist villages.
Comparing the results of vulnerability scenarios shows that many tourist villages in Iran need proper planning and management to reduce geophysical vulnerability. Another point is that the spatial analysis of villages in Iran indicates that the tourist villages in the west and north of Iran are more geophysically vulnerable. This issue can be due to geological and climatic reasons, the density of faults, channels, and specific geographical factors in these areas. In the current research, the importance of geophysical criteria, such as geological formations, faults, landslides, channels, etc., has been pointed out in the degree of vulnerability of tourist villages. The degree of vulnerability of villages has been aggravated or weakened according to these criteria.
Also, the analysis of the results shows that in all three pessimistic, balanced, and optimistic scenarios, the pattern or distribution of tourist villages in terms of geophysical vulnerability is a cluster pattern. In other words, any cluster or group of villages that have a degree of geophysical vulnerability is affected by certain geographical factors. In fact, various factors are effective in the formation of such a model for tourist villages, and the sum of geographical factors and their differences in different regions of Iran is considered one of the most important. As a result, various factors such as topography, soil, geology, rivers, landslides, etc. can effectively distribute Iranian tourist villages and their clustering in terms of vulnerability.
 
 
Conclusion
Consequently, the vulnerability of tourist villages is influenced by various geographical factors such as roads, formations, topography, landslides, etc. Significant touristic villages are exposed to geophysical risks, which should be adopted according to the priority for risk management and prevention.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.