تحلیل عوامل موثر بر تاب آوری نهادی سکونتگاههای روستایی (مورد مطالعه:روستاهای حوضه آبریز شاخه اصلی و سفلی گرگان رود)

Floods inflict significant damage in Golestan Province each year, making it one of the most flood-prone regions in the country. Between 1991 and 2007, several destructive floods struck the villages within the Gorganrood watershed, leaving rural areas highly vulnerable and causing extensive damage to physical structures, particularly housing, roads, public facilities, and agricultural and garden lands. Despite the awareness of local managers and villagers regarding flood risks, there remains a noticeable lack of cooperation and attention within the rural community toward adhering to safe river boundaries, construction regulations, and the use of durable, resilient structures. This issue primarily stems from reactive and hasty decision-making in the management of unexpected events. Rather than implementing strategies that enhance the knowledge, awareness, and preparedness of the community to manage flood risks and prevent disasters, authorities have often relied on a vulnerability-reduction approach focused narrowly on retrofitting housing and infrastructure, typically on a limited scale. In contrast, a resilience-based approach emphasizes not only the physical dimensions of rural communities—such as housing, roads, and infrastructure—but also the environmental, social, economic, and institutional dimensions. This study focuses specifically on the institutional dimension of rural communities, emphasizing a contemporary resilience-based approach. Accordingly, the research addresses two primary questions:

• What factors influence the institutional resilience of rural settlements?

• What is the current level of institutional resilience in the studied rural settlements?

Methodology

This study is applied in purpose and employs a descriptive-analytical methodology. Data were collected using a combination of library research and field surveys. The study population comprised residents of the villages of Mohammad Aleq, Salaq Yalghi, Yalmeh Salian, Dogonchi, Qara Qileh, and Charqoli, totaling 3,876 households. A sample of 350 households was determined using Cochran’s formula. Stratified sampling was employed, with the number of respondents from each village proportional to its population. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire. The reliability of the questionnaire was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha and the composite reliability coefficient (CR). As reported in the findings section, both Cronbach’s alpha and composite reliability values indicate that the questionnaire demonstrated adequate reliability. Questionnaire validity was established in two stages: first, face and content validity were confirmed through expert evaluation; second, discriminant validity was verified using the average variance extracted (AVE) index.

Results and Discussion

The results indicate that the studied settlements exhibit a low level of institutional resilience, with Salaq Yalghi village performing relatively better than the others, recording an overall average score of 2.89. The low institutional resilience observed in the villages can be attributed to several factors: limited financial and technical incentives from governmental and local authorities to prepare for social risks, low community participation in decision-making, inadequate responsiveness of service and aid institutions during disasters, limited satisfaction among residents with crisis management performance and service delivery, and insufficient responsiveness and loan provision by banks in the aftermath of natural disasters, including floods.

The study also highlights a positive and significant effect of place attachment on institutional resilience, with a path coefficient of 0.239. This indicates that higher levels of place attachment create more favorable conditions for enhancing institutional resilience. The findings suggest that, following a disaster, a strong sense of belonging to a place supports the institutional resilience of rural settlements. Consequently, communities displaced by disasters often experience a diminished sense of belonging in their new locations.

The study further demonstrates a positive and significant effect of social capital on institutional resilience, with a path coefficient of 0.656. These findings indicate that social capital plays a critical role in institutional resilience. Specifically, social networks, mutual trust, and cooperation within the community enhance the capacity of settlements to cope with and recover from shocks and crises.

Conclusion

To mitigate the impacts of natural hazards such as floods, it is crucial not only to enhance societal capacity for recovery but also to strengthen overall resilience systems. Accordingly, disaster planning and management strategies should shift from a traditional focus on vulnerability reduction toward empowering communities, enhancing societal capacities, and fostering resilience. This study aimed to assess the institutional resilience of rural settlements, one of the key dimensions of resilience, and to identify the factors that promote its enhancement. The findings revealed that the studied villages exhibit a low level of institutional resilience. Additionally, place attachment and social capital were found to exert positive and significant effects on institutional resilience. The path coefficients indicate that these two variables together account for 48.5% of the variance in institutional resilience.d shift from a traditional focus on vulnerability reduction toward empowering communities, enhancing societal capacities, and fostering resilience. This study aimed to assess the institutional resilience of rural settlements, one of the key dimensions of resilience, and to identify the factors that promote its enhancement. The findings revealed