نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه طراحی صنعتی، دانشکدگان هنرهای زیبا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 گروه طراحی صنعتی، دانشکدگان هنرهای زیبا، دانشگاه تهران، ایران
3 گروه طراحی صنعتی، دانشکدگان هنرهای زیبا، دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction
Futures studies, an interdisciplinary field that emerged in the aftermath of World War II, provides innovative tools and methodological approaches to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in anticipating the future. This approach enables organizations and communities to move beyond linear forecasting, facilitating the development of flexible, pluralistic scenarios that capture potential environmental and social transformations. Such considerations are particularly salient in the realm of rural development, which is confronted with significant challenges including climate change, population migration, and entrenched structural inequalities. Although a substantial body of research in Iran has explored the application of futures studies to rural development, these studies have frequently overlooked the active engagement of local stakeholders and have insufficiently considered the unique characteristics of deprived regions. This study seeks to address this gap by concentrating on Zirtang Abzar Village in Khuzestan Province. It aims to formulate practical, contextually appropriate strategies to alleviate deprivation and enhance quality of life in the area, employing futures studies and scenario planning methodologies, while incorporating the direct participation of local residents.
Methodology
This study employs a qualitative, interpretive-descriptive approach within the TAIDA futures studies framework, encompassing five primary stages. In the first stage, primary data and trends influencing rural development were gathered through fieldwork and 26 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. In the second stage, the collected data were categorized and analyzed using two complementary tools: PESTLE analysis to examine external factors and SWOT analysis to assess the village’s internal conditions, providing a comprehensive understanding of the current context. The third stage focused on scenario visualization and development. Through a dedicated stakeholder workshop employing the Lotus Blossom technique, innovative ideas for the village’s development were elicited and refined. In the fourth stage, the Delphi method, involving 11 experts, was employed to identify the most viable scenario and achieve consensus on the preferred option. Finally, in the fifth stage, a backcasting approach was used to delineate the necessary pathways and practical measures required to implement the selected scenario and realize the envisioned rural development objectives.
The study area is Andika County, located in northeastern Khuzestan Province, which was officially designated as a county in 2009. With an estimated population of approximately 85,000 (2016 census) and over 595 villages, the county’s economy is predominantly based on agriculture and livestock, with the majority of residents belonging to the Bakhtiari Lur ethnic group. Despite substantial efforts by organizations such as the Barakat Foundation to mitigate deprivation through multiple infrastructure initiatives, Zirtang Abzar Village continues to confront significant challenges related to infrastructure and livelihoods. Owing to its remote location and dispersed population, the village experiences substantial deficits in sustainable access to drinking water, gas, and modern agricultural technologies, rendering it an underdeveloped area.
Results and discussion
This study was undertaken to design development-oriented and deprivation-reducing scenarios for Zirtang Abzar Village, applying the TAIDA futures studies framework. The findings indicate that enhancing living standards and economic conditions in the area necessitates integrated attention to social, cultural, economic, and environmental dimensions. Moreover, the active involvement of stakeholders in problem identification, situational analysis, and solution generation proved pivotal in shaping realistic scenarios.
During the design phase, four potential scenarios were formulated: handicrafts development (with an emphasis on “Shirdang” weaving), medicinal agriculture, insect farming, and indigenous tourism (ecotourism). These scenarios were subsequently evaluated through two consecutive Delphi rounds, engaging 15 local and regional experts. Ultimately, the handicrafts development scenario emerged as the top priority, attaining both the highest evaluation score and the broadest expert consensus. This strategy was widely endorsed owing to its congruence with the cultural traditions and skill sets of the local community—particularly women—as well as its feasibility given existing resources.
Conclusion
This study demonstrates that integrating qualitative, participatory, and futures-oriented approaches can yield an effective framework for decision-making in rural development. The active engagement of local experts, systematic data analysis, and the application of innovative methods facilitated the development of scenarios characterized by both feasibility and broad social acceptance. Despite these achievements, a key challenge was the limited availability of up-to-date statistical data, particularly in the economic and environmental domains. To address this gap, alternative approaches were employed, including group analysis, specialized interviews, and the triangulation of qualitative data.
In conclusion, the findings of this study provide a foundation for formulating policies and designing local development programs in comparable regions. The successful implementation of the selected scenario could generate positive outcomes, including the mobilization of local capacities, the empowerment of communities, the reduction of inequalities, and overall improvements in quality of life. Furthermore, this study offers a strategic framework that can inform the design of analogous development initiatives in other deprived villages across the country.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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