پژوهش های روستائی

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کمبود آب، زیرساخت آبیاری و پایداری کشت citrus خرده‌مالکان تحت تنش اقلیمی در استان لیمپوپو آفریقای جنوبی: تحلیلی با رویکرد مرز تصادفی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
ساموئل او جوزف
مرکز مطالعات کشاورزی و محیطی (CAES)، دانشگاه آفریقای جنوبی (UNISA)
10.22059/jrur.2026.417716.2132
چکیده
کمبود آب، محدودکننده‌ترین قید زیست‌فیزیکی بر تولید کشاورزی در استان لیمپوپو آفریقای جنوبی را تشکیل می‌دهد؛ با این حال، تأثیر کمی آن بر کارایی سود و پایداری بلندمدت تولیدکنندگان خرده‌مالک citrus به‌طور کافی مستند نشده است. این مطالعه با استفاده از تحلیل مرز تصادفی، پیامدهای قیود کمّی آب و افزایش هزینهٔ آب را بر کارایی تولید و سود در میان ۲۲۰ واحد تولیدی خرده‌مالک citrus که در پنج شهرداری ناحیه‌ای استان لیمپوپو مورد بررسی قرار گرفته‌اند، برآورد می‌کند. نتایج برآورد حداکثر درست‌نمایی برای مدل مرز سود نرمال‌شده نشان می‌دهد که کمّیت آب، پیش‌بین غالب منفی نتایج تولید است (ضریب بتا = ۰/۶۷۱، p < ۰/۰۰۱)، در حالی که هزینهٔ آب دومین پیش‌بین مثبت بزرگ در تابع سود (بتا = ۰/۳۶۵، p < ۰/۰۰۱) پس از هزینهٔ کود (بتا = ۰/۳۸۰، p < ۰/۰۰۱) است و این دو با هم بیش از ۴۰ درصد از واریانس تبیین‌شده در سود نرمال‌شده را توضیح می‌دهند. میانگین کارایی سود ۰/۷۴ برآورد شده است و ناامنی دسترسی به آب به‌عنوان محرک اصلی کمبود کارایی سود در زیرگروه کشاورزانی که امتیازی پایین‌تر از آستانهٔ پایداری ۰/۶۰ کسب کرده‌اند، شناسایی شد. تحلیل شرایط زیرساخت آبیاری نشان می‌دهد که ۶۲/۳ درصد از واحدهای تولیدی نمونه‌شده زیر سطح بهینهٔ کارایی سیستم آبیاری فعالیت می‌کنند و دسترسی ناکافی به آب با میانگین امتیاز شدت لیکرت ۴/۲ از ۵/۰، به‌عنوان شدیدترین مانع سازگاری در مجموعهٔ داده‌ها ارزیابی شد. رگرسیون لجستیک ترتیبی تأیید می‌کند که ناامنی دسترسی به آب، دومین پیش‌بین منفی قوی برای شدت سازگاری با اقلیم است (OR = ۰/۵۱، p < ۰/۰۰۱). این نتایج پیامدهای مستقیمی برای برنامهٔ جامع ملی آب و بهداشت آفریقای جنوبی، اصلاح قیمت‌گذاری آب کشاورزی و ادغام سرمایه‌گذاری در زیرساخت آبیاری در راهبرد سازگاری با اقلیم کشور برای باغبانی تجاری دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تولید citrus
کارایی سود
حاکمیت آب
اصلاح قیمت‌گذاری آب
کشاورزی آفریقای جنوبی
سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Water Scarcity, Irrigation Infrastructure, and Smallholder Citrus Viability under Climate Stress in South Africa’s Limpopo Province: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

نویسنده English

Samuel Joseph
CAES, University of South Africa (UNISA)
چکیده English

A B S T R A C T
Water scarcity represents the most binding biophysical constraint on agricultural production in Limpopo Province, South Africa, yet its quantitative impact on the profit efficiency and long term viability of smallholder citrus producers remains inadequately documented. This study employs stochastic frontier analysis to estimate the production and profit efficiency implications of water quantity constraints and water cost escalation among 220 citrus smallholder production units surveyed across five district municipalities in Limpopo Province. Maximum likelihood estimation results for the normalised profit frontier model reveal that water quantity is the dominant negative predictor of production outcomes (coefficient beta = 0.671, p < 0.001), while water cost is the second largest positive predictor in the profit function (beta = 0.365, p < 0.001) after fertiliser cost (beta = 0.380, p < 0.001), together explaining over 40% of the explained variance in normalised profit. Mean profit efficiency is estimated at 0.74, with water access insecurity identified as the primary driver of profit efficiency shortfalls in the sub group of farmers scoring below the 0.60 viability threshold. Analysis of irrigation infrastructure conditions reveals that 62.3% of sampled production units operate below optimal irrigation system efficiency, and that inadequate water access was rated the most severe adaptation barrier in the dataset, with a mean Likert severity score of 4.2 out of 5.0. Ordinal logistic regression confirms that water access insecurity is the second strongest negative predictor of climate adaptation intensity (OR = 0.51, p < 0.001). These results carry direct implications for the South African National Water and Sanitation Master Plan, agricultural water pricing reform, and the integration of irrigation infrastructure investment into the country’s climate adaptation strategy for commercial horticulture.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Citrus Production
Profit Efficiency
Water Governance
Water Pricing Reform
South Africa Agriculture
Climate Change Adaptation.
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پژوهش های روستائی
دوره 17، شماره 2
تابستان 1405
صفحه 15-28

  • تاریخ دریافت 28 فروردین 1405
  • تاریخ بازنگری 14 خرداد 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 08 تیر 1405