پیامدهای امنیتی - انتظامی خالی از سکنه شدن سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در استان خراسان جنوبی: یک مطالعه دلفی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

استادیار، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده فرماندهی و ستاد، دانشگاه علوم انتظامی امین، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در دهه‌های گذشته ضعف راهبردهای توسعه‌روستایی، تغییرات اقلیمی و خشکسالی مداوم در استان خراسان‌جنوبی، سبب شکل گیری مهاجرت بی‌رویه روستایی-شهری شده، و این مساله خالی از سکنه شدن حدود نیمی از روستاها را در پی داشته است. بر این اساس، پرسش اساسی پژوهش عبارت است از، پیامدهای امنیتی تخلیه‌جمعیتی سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در استان خراسان‌جنوبی کدام‌اند؟ پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ شیوه گردآوری و تجزیه داده‌ها از نوع توصیفی-پیمایشی است، که در چهارچوب مراحل مطالعه دلفی انجام شده است. به روش نمونه‌گیری هدفمند، اعضای پانل دلفی به تعداد 35 نفر از میان متخصصان مرتبط با موضوع انتخاب شد. به منظور تدوین گزاره‌های دلفی، با رویکرد اکتشافی دو نشست گروه کانونی برگزار و در هر نشست 12 نفر از اعضای پانل دلفی مشارکت کردند. پیمایش دلفی طی دو دور تکرار و پس از رسیدن به اجماع قابل قبول میان اعضای پانل، متوقف شد. آزمون‌های توصیفی شامل میانگین، انحراف معیار، میانگین رتبه‌ای برای تجزیه و تحلیل نتایج نظرسنجی دلفی و همچنین ضریب توافقی کندال برای بررسی سطح اجماع میان مشارکت‌کنندگان به کار رفت. بر پایه یافته‌های مرحله اکتشافی دلفی 22 گزاره‌ به عنوان پیامدهای تخلیه جمعیتی سکونتگاه‌های روستایی شناسایی شد. به طور کلی، تضعیف نظم و امنیت شهرهای مهاجرپذیر، اختلال در امنیت عمومی و امنیت اجتماعی نواحی روستایی، دشوار شدن مدیریت انتظامی بحران‌های انسانی و طبیعی در قلمرو جغرافیای روستایی، افزایش جرم و جنایت و خلاءهای امنیتی در نواحی روستایی، ناپایدار شدن امنیت غذایی و امنیت اقتصادی کسب‌وکارهای روستایی در مقیاس منطقه‌ای مهم‌ترین نتایج پژوهش هستند.

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