واکاوی و تبیین تأثیر خشکسالی بر مناطق روستایی شهرستان زنجان (مطالعه موردی: روستای حاج‌آرش)

Introduction: Drought, as a natural disaster and an inevitable phenomenon, has frequently occurred in the vast areas of different countries, especially in hot and dry climates for a long time and has engendered many economic domages as well as social and environmental ones. Obviously, the occurrence of drought in no way can be prevented, because it is a stochastic and unexpected phenomenon; but in this field, the adverse effects of drought can be reduced largely through planning and conducting some coherent plans and compatible strategies with local conditions affected by drought. Drought, as a natural disaster and an inevitable phenomenon, has frequently occurred in the vast areas of different countries, especially in hot and dry climates for a long time and has engendered many economic domages as well as social and environmental ones. Obviously, the occurrence of drought in no way can be prevented, because it is a stochastic and unexpected phenomenon.However, the first step to cope appropriately with drought and its effects is to identify and understand this phenomenon and its effects on different areas particularly in rural regions according to more vulnerability of them, so it will help to develop and apply effective strategies and mechanisms. Regarding the importance of this fact, the main purpose of this study has been analyzing and explaining the effects of drought in the rural regions of Zanjan county.
Methodology: The research method of the current study in terms of the nature, rate and degree of control and method of data collection was quantitative, non-experimental and field research, respectively. The statistical population of the study consisted of 683 farmers of Hajarash village (N= 683). According to Morgan & Krejcie table, 250 persons of them were selected by Simple Random Sampling for doing the study (n=250). A questionnaire was used to collect the data which consisted of two parts including respondents’ profile (4 variables) and respondents’ viewpoints about the importance of each of the drought effects (41 variables). A ten-point scale (0 = the least and 10 = the highest) was used to measure the second part. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of experts. A pilot study was conducted to establish reliability of the instrument. Cronbach alpha's coefficients for main scales of questionnaire including respondents’ viewpoints about the importance of economic, social and environmental effects of drought were 0.91, 0.87 and 0.89, respectively. Collected data were analyzed using the SPSS software. For data analysis, descriptive statistics (including frequency, percentage and mean) and inferential statistics (including factor analysis) were used; In addition, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to assessment of drought severity.
Results: The results related to the SPI for studying the drought severity in the study region showed that during the years 1385-1386, mild drought-and in the year 1387, moderate drought- has occurred in the Hajarash village. Also, the factor analysis was used to categorize the effects of drought in Hajarash village and determining the extent of explained variances by each of variables. The findings of factor analysis revealed that three factors named as economic, environmental and social-psychological explained 61.39% of total variances of drought effects in the Hajarash village which showed the appropriate amount explained variances by factors are extracted.
Conclusion: Based on the main results of the survey, several mechanisms and suggestions including: giving the grant loans or less- interest grants based on household livelihood status and monitoring practices on the distribution of loans to ensure equitable distribution of facillities, more attention from government to the insurance fund of agricultural products as an effective structure in reducing crisis through timely payment of damages and the complete support and funding of employment and devoting the sufficient funds for creating the employment in the study area (in the economic dimension), identification and extension of appropriate varieties and species compatible with regional climate as a substitute cultivation for some products with high water requirements, development and extension of horticultural crops compatible with regional climate in the drought condition, providing the sustainable development infrastructure of water resources such as drainage, drip irrigation systems and building the reservoir dams (in the environmental dimension), creating the judicial/ legal appropriate organizations and structures to resolve internal conflicts in the use of water and pasture, developing advisory strategies and programs to reduce stress and anxiety in critical drought conditions and developing the effective protection laws and strategies to support families affected by drought (in the social- psychological dimension) were presented in order to manage and reduce the negative effects of drought in the study area.