تحلیل عوامل کلیدی موثر بر شکل‌دهی الگوی آمایش فضاهای روستایی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری (مورد مطالعه: استان لرستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار جغرافیای روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 استاد جغرافیای روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

4 دانشیار برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای، گروه طراحی شهری، دانشکده معماری و هنر، دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران.

چکیده

برنامه‌های توسعه و عمران روستایی بر اساس الگو‌های مختلف در استان لرستان، توفیق مورد انتظار را در رونق اقتصادی و بهبود زندگی روستاییان نداشته و به لحاظ اجتماعی در نهادینه کردن مشارکت روستاییان و توانمندسازی آنان موفقیت چندانی کسب ننموده است. برای‌ از بین بردن این آثار منفی از فضاهای روستایی استان، ضروری است که عوامل کلیدی مؤثر برای ارائه الگوی آمایش فضاهای روستایی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری به عنوان هدف اصلی این تحقیق شناسایی و تحلیل گردد. بدین روی‌ در این تحقیق با استفاده از روش‌های‌ دلفی‌، پنل متخصصان و تحلیل تأثیرات متقابل با کمک نرم‌افزار MicMac  عوامل کلیدی مؤثر در طراحی الگوی آمایش فضاهای روستایی شناسایی‌ و تحلیل شده است. نتایج به دست آمده نشان می‌‌دهد که از 40 مسئله و مشکل اصلی‌ برنامه‌های‌ روستایی‌، 13 عامل چشم‌انداز روستایی، آینده‌نگاری، محیط‌زیست، ساختار اقتصاد روستایی، حکمروایی روستایی، سناریوهای جایگزین، ویژگی‌های مناطق، آمایش سرزمین، مشارکت روستاییان، اصول توسعه فضایی روستایی، ظرفیت محلی و سرمایه اجتماعی، مدیریت روستایی و همگرایی- واگرایی بخش‌ها مهم‌ترین عوامل کلیدی‌ مؤثر بر طراحی‌ الگوی آمایش فضاهای روستایی لرستان محسوب می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Key Factors Affecting the Formation of Spatial Planning Patterns in Rural Areas Based on the Foresight Approach: A Case Study of Lorestan

نویسندگان [English]

  • Omid Omidi Shahabad 1
  • Seyed Ali Badri 2
  • Mohammad Reza Rezvani 3
  • Nader Zali 4
1 PhD candidate, Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate prof., Dep. of Human Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Prof., Dep. of Human Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
4 Associate prof., Urban Planning Dep., Faculty of Architecture & Art, University of Guilan, Guilan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Rural development programs based on different patterns in Lorestan province did not have the expected effect on the economic prosperity and improvement of villagers' life. Socially, they had no success to establish the participation of villagers and their empowerment either. In order to eliminate these shortcomings from the rural areas of the province, it is necessary to identify and analyze the key factors in presenting a rural spatial planning pattern through a foresight approach. In this research, Delphi and panel techniques together with the analysis of interactions were implemented with the MicMac software to identify and analyze the key factors involved in designing a pattern for rural spatial planning. The results showed that, out of 40 main problems in rural programs, 13 factors are the most important ones to affect the design of a pattern for the rural areas of Lorestan. These factors include rural perspective, futurism, environment, rural economic structure, rural governance, alternative scenarios, features of the regions, land use planning, rural participation, spatial development principles, rural, local capacity and social capital, rural management, and convergence-divergence of the sectors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • spatial pattern
  • Rural Areas
  • Foresight
  • Micmac
  • Lorestan Province
Afrakhteh, Hassan, (2009). Rural Management With An Emphasis on Iran, Ganj Honar Publications, Tehran
Albrechts, L. (2001). Planners’ Role in Strategic Spatial Planning, University of Leuven
Bahrami, Abdolali, (2004). Rural Development Planning Process, Proceedings of the Congress of Rural Development, Challenges and Prospects, Higher Education and Research Institute of Planning and Management, Pp: 145- 160, Tehran, (In Persian).
Cullingworth, B. and Nadin, V. (2006). Town and Country Planning in the UK. Fourteenth edition. Routledge, London.
Eftekhari, Rokn Aldin A., Badri, A., & Sojasi H., (2011). The Foundations of The Theory of Physical Planning of Rural Areas, The Housing Institute of Islamic Revolution, Tehran, (In Persian)
Elgendy, H., (2003). Development and Implementation of Planning Information Systems in collaborative spatial planning processes, PhD thesis, Karlsruhe University.
European Commission, (1997). The EU Compendium of Spatial Planning Systems and Policies, Regional Development Studies 28 (Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities)
Faraji Dana, A., (1992). An Integrated Spatial Planning And Spatial Development, Journal of Economic Research, Tehran University, No. 46, (In Persian)
Firouznia Q., Eftekhari Rokn Aldin, A., And Badri, S. A., (2011). The Prospect And System of Planning Management of Physical Development of Rural Areas in Iran, The Housing Institute of Islamic Revolution, (In Persian)
Faludi, A.; et al, (2002). The making of the European Spatial Development Perspective; Routledge; London
FOREN, (2001). A practical Guid To Regional Foresight, European Commission..
Fouladi, M., (2002). Debate on Spatial Planning Orientation, Technical And Administrative Message Manager Magazine No. 7, (In Persian)
Foundation of Development Tomorrow, (2005). Methods of Technology Foresight, Knowledge Light Technology Development Institute, Tehran, (In Persian)
Ghadiri Masoom M., (2013). To Identify And Analyze The Barriers To Rural Development in Lorestan Province And Using The Delphi Technique And Provide Solutions For Out of It, Governor of Lorestan, (In Persian)
Godet, M., (1991). From anticipation to action, UNESCO publishing, Paris
Godet, M., (2006), Creating Future Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool, France, Economica Publish,
Havas, Attila, (2003). Socio-economic And Developmental Needs: Focus of Foresight Programmes. Ankara, December.
Healey, P., (1994). Development Plans: New approaches to Making Frameworks for Land Use Regulation, European Planning Studies 2(1): 39–58.
Kalantari K., Asadi, A., Choubchyan S. & Shabanali Fami H., (2007), The Major Challenges of Rural Development in Order To Achieve Sustainable Development, Journal of Sociology University Ashtian(8) , (In Persian)
Kippenberger, T., (1999). Scenario’s: the search of foresight, The Antidote (22) C|S|B|S Publications Limited in: http://en.laprospective.fr/dyn/ anglais/memoire/antidote.pdf
Kunzmann, K., (2006). The Europeanization of Spatial Planning; in Regional Development and Spatial Planning in an Enlarged European Union: Ed by: N. Adams, J, Alden, N. Harris; Ashgate; England; pp. 43-63.
Lorestan Province, (2013). Spatial Plan of Lorestan Province, The Second Part Spatial Structure, Planning Department, Khorramabad, (In Persian)
Madani Kashani, Q., And Kabiri, M., (1999). The Necessity of Prepare And Implement Regional Development Plans in Formulation Process National Development Plans, Plan And Budget Organization of Iran, Tehran, (In Persian)
Mahmoudi, K., (2012). To Study The Barriers And Challenges of Rural Development in Terms of Planning, Students of Geography National Scientific Conference, Tehran, (In Persian)
Martin, B.R., (1995). Foresight in Science and Technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168.
Misra, R.P., (1975). Methodology of spatial planning for rural development in Iran, Plan and budget organization, Tehran, Iran
Molaei Hashjin, N., (2003). Analysis of The Requirements of The Review of Planning Policies For Rural Development in Iran, Journal of Geographic Space, Issue 17, Islamic Azad University of Ahar, (In Persian)
Momeni, M., (1999). Charter of Spatial Planning of Europe, Organization of Planning And Budget, Department of Regions, Regional Planning Office, (In Persian)
Motiee Langroudi H., (2007). Rural Planning With An Emphasis on Iran, Mashhad University Jihad Publications, Fourth Edition, Mashhad, (In Persian)
Narouie, M., (2008). Preparation of Development Studies: Theoretical Foundations, Governor of Isfahan, (In Persian)
National Center of Spatial Planning (A), (2006). A Glossary of Specialized of Province Spatial Planning, Management And Planning Organization of Iran, Tehran, (In Persian)
National Center For Spatial Planning (B), (2006). The Prospects For The Country›s Development And Spatial Planning Considerations, Department of Economic Affairs And Budget And Plan Coordination, Management And Planning Organization of Iran, Tehran, (In Persian)
National Center of Spatial Planning (C), (2006). Services Description of Province Spatial Plan, The Department of Economic Affairs And Budget And Plan Coordination, Management And Planning Organization of Iran, Tehran, (In Persian)
Nazemi A., (2009). The Business Sector Spatial Strategies: Future Scenarios For Trade And Business, Asia Management And Spatial Planning Consultants, Commerce Ministry , Tehran, (In Persian)
Nazemi A., Ghadiri R., (2006). Foresight From Concept To Exercise, The Center of New Industries, Tehran, (In Persian)
Pirbabaei M., (2004). Evaluation of Capacity Building in Rural Development Initiatives, Case Study: Regional Development Plan of Selseleh, Proceedings of The Congress of Rural Development, Challenges And Prospects, Higher Education And Research Institute of Planning And Management, Pp: 180-161, Tehran, (In Persian)
Plan and Budget Organization, (2015). National Spatial Planning Criteria.
Pour Mohammadi M., Hoseinzadeh Dalir K., Ghorbani, R. And Zali, N., (2010). Reengineering Planning Process With Emphasis on The Use of Foresight, Journal of Geography And Development, Volume 8, Issue Title 20, Pp. 58-37, (In Persian)
Pourtaheri M., Eftekhari Rokn Aldin, A., & Badri, S. A., (2011). Strategies And Policies Physical Development of Rural Settlements (With An Emphasis on International And Iran Experiences), The Housing Institute of Islamic Revolution, Tehran, (In Persian)
Pourtaheri, M., Naghavi, M, (2012). Physical Development of Rural Settlements With A Sustainable Development Approach (Concepts, Theories And Strategies), Journal of Housing And Rural Environment, Volume 31, No. 137, Pp70-53 Tehran, (In Persian)
Reger, G., (2001). Technology foresight in companies: From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 13(4), 533-553.
Rezvani, M., (2011). Rural Development Planning in Iran, Publishing Ghomes, Fourth Edition, Tehran, (In Persian)
Rezvani, M., Nazari, V., Khorasani, M., (2010). The Culture of Concepts And Terminology of Planning And Rural Development, Published By University Jihad, Tehran, (In Persian)
Sharifzadegan, M. And Razavi Dehkordi, A., (2010).Assessment of Planning Process “Spatial Planning” in Iran And Strategies For Improving It, Journal of Environmental Sciences, Year 7 Issue 4, Pp. 100-87, Tehran, (In Persian)
Sheykh Al-Islami A., And Beyranvandzadeh, M., (2009).Comparative Study And Assess The Degree of Development of Lorestan Province, Quarterly of Zagros Landscape, The First Year (1) , (In Persian)
Voros, J., (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10-21.
 Walsh, James A. and Mannion, P. Joseph, (2005). RURAL IRELAND 2025 Foresight Perspectives, Department of Agriculture and Food, COFORD, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Marine Institute
Zali, Nader, (2013). Strategic Foresight in Planning And Regional Development, Institute For Strategic Studies, Tehran, (In Persian)