تحلیلی بر پذیرش اجتماعی تأمین آب جهت خودکفایی گندم تا افق 1404 جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار آینده پژوهی، موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه ریزی اقتصادکشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، وزارت جهادکشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

2 استاد برنامه ریزی جغرافیایی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار مدیریت راهبردی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، تهران، ایران.

4 استاد آینده پژوهی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه کوروینوس، بوداپست، مجارستان.

5 استادیار آبیاری زهکشی، دانشکده فنی مهندسی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران.

6 استادیار اقتصادکشاورزی، موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه ریزی اقتصادکشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، وزارت جهادکشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

7 دانشیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

8 دکتری مدیریت منابع آب، وزارت نیرو، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در شرایط منابع آبی کشور، برقراری تناسب بین امنیت غذایی متکی بر تولید داخل و امنیت آبی به عنوان دو مؤلفه‌‌ی اساسی امنیت ملی و پذیرش اجتماعی آن، از الزامات مشروعیت و مقبولیت سیاست‌ها در چارچوب ارتقای حکمروایی آب و کشاورزی تلقی ‌‌می‌‌گردد. هدف این مقاله که منعکس‌کننده بخشی از یک آینده‌پژوهی یکپارچه است به دنبال پاسخ به چگونگی پذیرش دلایل ناظر بر تأمین آب برای خودکفایی گندم تا 1404 از سوی ذی‌نفعان اصلی هست. بر اساس اطلاعات NETWAT مصرف آب تولید ملی گندم برآورد شده سپس بنا به نتایج کارگاه، معیارهای تأیید و رد تأمین آب برای خودکفایی گندم در قالب سیزده متغیر استخراج گردید. پرسشنامه‌ای با طیف لیکرت 5 گزینه‌‌ای و پس از ارزیابی روایی توسط کارشناسان و برآورد آلفای کرونباخ 704/0 در سطح 05/0 میان 47 نفر از خبرگان بخش کشاورزی و آب توزیع شد که با روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌‌ای و هدف‌مند انتخاب شدند. فرضیه پایین بودن میزان پذیرش µi

کلیدواژه‌ها

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