تحلیلی بر پذیرش اجتماعی تأمین آب جهت خودکفایی گندم تا افق 1404 جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار آینده پژوهی، موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه ریزی اقتصادکشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، وزارت جهادکشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

2 استاد برنامه ریزی جغرافیایی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار مدیریت راهبردی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، تهران، ایران.

4 استاد آینده پژوهی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه کوروینوس، بوداپست، مجارستان.

5 استادیار آبیاری زهکشی، دانشکده فنی مهندسی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران.

6 استادیار اقتصادکشاورزی، موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه ریزی اقتصادکشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، وزارت جهادکشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

7 دانشیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

8 دکتری مدیریت منابع آب، وزارت نیرو، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در شرایط منابع آبی کشور، برقراری تناسب بین امنیت غذایی متکی بر تولید داخل و امنیت آبی به عنوان دو مؤلفه‌‌ی اساسی امنیت ملی و پذیرش اجتماعی آن، از الزامات مشروعیت و مقبولیت سیاست‌ها در چارچوب ارتقای حکمروایی آب و کشاورزی تلقی ‌‌می‌‌گردد. هدف این مقاله که منعکس‌کننده بخشی از یک آینده‌پژوهی یکپارچه است به دنبال پاسخ به چگونگی پذیرش دلایل ناظر بر تأمین آب برای خودکفایی گندم تا 1404 از سوی ذی‌نفعان اصلی هست. بر اساس اطلاعات NETWAT مصرف آب تولید ملی گندم برآورد شده سپس بنا به نتایج کارگاه، معیارهای تأیید و رد تأمین آب برای خودکفایی گندم در قالب سیزده متغیر استخراج گردید. پرسشنامه‌ای با طیف لیکرت 5 گزینه‌‌ای و پس از ارزیابی روایی توسط کارشناسان و برآورد آلفای کرونباخ 704/0 در سطح 05/0 میان 47 نفر از خبرگان بخش کشاورزی و آب توزیع شد که با روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌‌ای و هدف‌مند انتخاب شدند. فرضیه پایین بودن میزان پذیرش µi

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Social Acceptance of Supplying Water to Achieve Wheat Self-sufficiency up to 2025

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seid Ali Akbar Azimi Dezfuli 1
  • Abdoreza Rukn al-din Eftekhari 2
  • Ghadir Nezamipur 3
  • Eva Hideg 4
  • Bizan Nazari 5
  • Mahdi KazemNejad 6
  • Manochehr Farajzadeh 7
  • Hedayat Fahmi 8
1 Assistant professor, Future Studies, Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDERI), Tehran, Iran.
2 Professor of geography and rural planning, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant professor of strategic management, Faculty of Management, Azad Islami University, Tehran, Iran.
4 Professor of future studies, Faculty of Economics, Corvinus University, Budapest, Hungary.
5 Assistant professor of drainage and irrigation systems, Faculty of Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
6 Assistant professor of Agronomics, Agricultural Planning Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDERI), Tehran, Iran.
7 Professor of climatology, Faculty of Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
8 phD of Water resource management, Ministry of Energy, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Food security and water security are the fundamental components of community policy making. Through increasing safety and health as well as taking care of future generations and marginal groups, food security serves as one of the key issues related to sustainable rural and agriculture development. However, for the future of the world food, supplying the necessary water is a serious global challenge. With regard to the importance of the social acceptance of cost-benefit issues about water supplying for wheat self-sufficiency in the country, this paper seeks to respond to the question ‘how socially acceptable are the water supply programs for wheat self-sufficiency?’. Agriculture census (2012-13) and NETWAT data were used to compare the water consumption for wheat and other crops. A virtual workshop design was implemented for a social discourse about the reasons of water supply for wheat self-sufficiency. This was according to the integral future studies approach (2014-15). The data collection tool was a questionnaire (α = 0.05, chronbakh = 0.73) taken by a sample of 47 experts. As the results of the t-test (α = 0.05) showed, the experts would accept the pursuit of water supply programs for wheat self-sufficiency provided that water productivity is promoted and the following conditions are fulfilled: a) maintenance of the unique position of wheat in the food basket of the society, b) less water requirement for wheat than for most crops, c) insured access to wheat through its domestic production, d) improvement of national economic capacity, e) maintenance of agricultural employment capacity especially in rural areas, and f) maintenance and enhancement of national security.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Wheat self-sufficiency
  • Virtual water
  • Water governance
  • Social acceptance
  • Integral future studies
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