تحلیل هزینه‌‏کرد وام‌‏های کسب‌‏وکارهای خرد در توسعه اشتغال روستایی؛ کاربست مدل رگرسیون لجستیک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

2 کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 استاد، گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

اعطای اعتبارات خرد با هدف اشتغال و رونق تولید، روش مناسبی برای توانمند‌سازی فقرا، درآمدزایی، کاهش فقر و بهبود امنیت غذایی به شمار می‏رود. با وجود این، شواهد حاکی از آن است که بخشی از اعتبارات مذکور، دچار مخاطرات اخلاقی شده و گیرندگان وام تولیدی، آن را در مسیری غیر از تولید به مصرف می‏رسانند. پژوهش حاضر، در پی بررسی نحوه هزینه‌کرد وام‌های کسب‏وکار اعطایی توسط صندوق‏های خرد محلی شهرستان قلعه‏گنج استان کرمان و شناخت مهم‏ترین عوامل مؤثر بر هدایت صحیح آن‌ها بود. جامعه آماری این تحقیق ۲۱ هزار نفر روستایی عضو صندوق‌های اعتباری خرد راه‏اندازی شده در شهرستان قلعه‌گنج بود. حجم نمونه، با استفاده از نرم‏افزار G*Power، ۲۰۳ نفر تعیین و نمونه‌گیری، با روش چند مرحله‌ای انجام شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد 8/46 درصد اعضا، وام تولیدی خود را در مسیر غیرتولیدی مصرف و آن را از کسبوکار خارج کرده بودند، 3/44 درصد وام خویش را در جهت حفظ کسب‌وکار قبلی و 9/8 درصد اعضا وام خویش را در جهت ایجاد شغل جدید استفاده کرده بودند. تحلیل رگرسیون لجستیک نشان داد که متغیرهای «تعداد دفعات نظارت»، «تعداد اعضای گروه»، «عدم رضایت از بالا بودن اقساط وام»، «ادراک از کنترل رفتار»، «ادراک از عملکرد شغلی»، «ادراک از زمینه پیشرفت‌ شغلی» و «سطح تحصیلات» توانسته‌اند بین ۴6 تا ۶1 درصد از تغییرات متغیر وابسته «میزان هزینه‌کرد وام در توسعه کسب‌و‌کار» را تبیین نمایند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Spending Business Microloans on Rural Employment Development; Application of a Logistic Regression Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hojjat Varmazyari 1
  • Muhammad Asef Shaiq 2
  • Mohammad Ali Amiri Mijan 2
  • Khalil Kalantari 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran.
2 MSc., Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Lending microloans for employment creation and prosperity of production is an appropriate way to empower the poor, generate income, reduce poverty and improve food security. Nevertheless, the evidence shows that part of these microloans is faced with moral hazards and spent on non-productive affairs. This study aimed to investigate the spending of business microloans granted by local microcredit funds in the county of Qaleh Ganj in Kerman province and to identify the most important factors affecting their efficient usage. The statistical population consisted of 21,000 rural members of the microcredit funds set up in Qaleh Ganj County. The sample size was calculated using the G*Power software (n = 203) and the sampling was carried out by multistage sampling. The results showed that 46.8% of the members used their production loans in a non-productive way and took it out of the business, 44.3% of the respondents used their loans to maintain their previous business and 8.9% of them used their loans to create new jobs. Logistic regression analysis showed that the variables, namely "times of supervision", "number of group members", "dissatisfaction with high monthly installments", "perceived behavioral control", "perception of job performance", "perceived career advancement prospects" and "level of education" have explained between 46 and 61 percent of the individual membership in both groups of the dependent variable "using business microloans for business development".

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Microloans
  • Rural business
  • Entrepreneurship
  • Poverty alleviation
  • Qaleh Ganj
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