تحلیل عدم قطعیت‌های آینده تاب‌آوری اجتماعی جوامع روستایی با کاوش در واقعیت‌های موجود در چهارچوب برنامه‌ریزی سناریو (موردمطالعه : روستای فهلیان شهرستان ممسنی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مرودشت، مرودشت، ایران.

2 دکتری، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

چکیده

در نظر گرفتن عوامل دخیل در تاب‌آوری اجتماعی این جوامع در پاسخ به بیماری COVID-19 و بیماری‌های واگیردار در آینده بسیار مهم است. پژوهش حاضر ازنظر هدف کاربردی، از حیث روش پیمایشی در سطح اکتشافی و مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی و در بازه زمانی مهر 1400 صورت گرفته ‌است. مطالعه حاضر با عملیاتی کردن چهارچوب تاب‌آوری، یک رویکرد جامع‌ را برای بهینه‌سازی برنامه‌های مهار و سیاست‌های کاهش با استفاده از شاخص‌های مؤثر در تاب‌آوری اجتماعی روستاها با نمونه موردی روستای فهلیان با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی در مورد شیوع بیماری‌های همه‌گیر ارائه می‌دهد. تعداد 35 متغیر کلیدی با روش دلفی شناسایی شد. سپس این متغیرها بر اساس میزان اهمیت و عدم قطعیت با استفاده از نرم‌افزار (Micmac) اولویت‌بندی‌ و حیاتی‌ترین عوامل مشخص و برای نوشتن سناریوهای محتمل از نرم‌افزار سناریونگاری ویزارد استفاده شده ‌است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش 31 نفر از کارشناسان خبره در حوزه مسائل روستایی و برخی از اساتید دانشگاهی متخصص در حوزه موردمطالعه هستند. نتایج حاکی از آن بود که متغیر‌های رژیم غذایی، درآمد، ضعف امکانات بهداشتی، سبک زندگی، توانایی جبران خسارت، تورم ‌و فقر، در روستای فهلیان به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین متغیرهای تاب‌آوری اجتماعی در مقابله با شیوع بیماری‌های واگیردار و کرونا شناسایی شدند و سپس به‌وسیله نرم‌افزار سناریونگاری ویزارد 7 سناریو اصلی تاب‌آوری اجتماعی تعریف شد که سناریو یک داری وضعیت مطلوب و امیدوارکننده بوده است. مهم‌ترین پیشنهاد برای تاب‌آوری این روستا در مواجهه با بیماری‌های واگیردار کمک مسئولین برای جذب امکانات بهداشتی و درمانی و همچنین جذب پزشکان متخصص برای رسیدگی به مسائل درمانی روستای فهلیان و شهرستان نورآباد ممسنی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Future Uncertainties of Social Resilience of Rural Communities by Exploring the Existing Realities in the Framework of Scenario Planning (Case Study: Fahlian Village)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Shamsoddini 1
  • Mohammad Reza Amiri Fahlyiani 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht Branch, Marvdasht, Iran.
2 PhD, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The present study is applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of method, it is exploratory and based on the future research approach and has been conducted in the period of October 2021. The present study, by implementing the resilience framework, develops a community approach to optimize containment programs and mitigation policies using effective indicators in rural social resilience with a case study of Fahlian village with a future approach. It provides research on the prevalence of epidemics. 35 key variables were identified by the Delphi method. Then these variables were prioritized based on the degree of importance and uncertainty using Micmac software and the most critical factors were identified and the wizard scripting software was used to write possible scenarios. The statistical population of this study is 31 experts in the field of rural issues. The results showed that the variables of diet, income, poor health facilities, lifestyle, ability to compensate, inflation and poverty in the village of Fahlian are the most important variables of social resilience in dealing with the spread of the disease. Infectious diseases and coronas were identified and then the main social resilience scenarios were defined by Wizard Scenario software, which was a favorable and promising situation. The most important proposal for the resilience of this village in the face of infectious diseases is to help the authorities to attract health facilities and also attract specialized doctors to address the medical issues of Fahlian village and Nurabad city.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Uncertainty
  • Social resilience
  • Infectious disease
  • Scenario
  • Fahlian village
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