بررسی نقش گردشگری روستایی در توسعه اشتغال پایدار ساکنان در دوران پساکرونا با رویکرد سناریونگاری (موردمطالعه: شهرستان سرعین)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار، گروه مدیریت دولتی و گردشگری، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

چکیده

از دیرباز، اشتغال پایدار در روستاها یکی از اصلی‌ترین اهداف کشورها است. گردشگری روستایی به‌عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین انواع گردشگری، نقش مهمی را ایفا می‌نماید. شیوع ویروس کرونا چالش‌های بسیار بزرگی را برای صنعت گردشگری به وجود آورد که تأثیرات و پیامدهای منفی آن، موجب گردید که کشورها به دنبال اتخاذ اقداماتی باشند. یکی از مهم‌ترین آن‌ها، سناریوپردازی است که هدف اصلی تحقیق حاضر نیز بررسی نقش گردشگری روستایی در توسعه اشتغال پایدار ساکنان در دوران پساکرونا با رویکرد سناریونگاری است. روش تحقیق، آمیخته است که با استفاده از رویکرد متوالی اکتشافی در دو فاز کیفی - کمّی انجام شد. روش‌های به‌کاررفته به ترتیب «تحلیل مضمون و برنامه‌ریزی سناریو» و جامعه آماری شامل خبرگان حوزه‌های مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، گردشگری روستایی، مدیریت دولتی، مددکاری اجتماعی، جامعه‌شناسی، جغرافیای روستایی است که با استفاده از نمونه‌گیری هدفمند، 13 نفر از آن‌ها مشارکت داشتند. مطابق با یافته‌ها در فاز اول که با استفاده از روش تحلیل مضمون انجام شده است، مضامین استخراج‌شده از مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته در قالب 48 مضمون پایه، 14 مضمون سازمان‌دهنده و 4 مضمون فراگیر هستند که برای شناسایی پیشران‌ها به مرحله بعدی راه می‌یابند. مطابق با یافته‌های فاز کمّی، چهار سناریو شناسایی شدند که عبارت‌اند از: درهای باز اقتصادی؛ گردشگری خانه دوم؛ سپر دفاعی اقتصادی؛ انزوای اقتصادی و قفل اجباری. باتوجه‌به نتایج، گردشگری در مناطق روستایی، نه‌تنها باعث توسعه اشتغال پایدار می‌شود، بلکه تأثیر زیادی بر ساکنان، به‌ویژه بر ایجاد شغل و درآمد آن‌ها دارد. این مقوله منجر به تغییر عظیمی در تحرک نیروی کار در روستاها شده است و نه‌تنها انتخاب‌های شغلی را غنی و بزرگ کرده است، بلکه اشتغال روستایی را متنوع‌تر و پایدارتر کرده است.

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