کاربست آینده‌نگاری در مدیریت پایدار منابع آب زیرزمینی در بخش کشاورزی حوضه کرخه‌علیا

نوع مقاله : مقاله برگرفته از پایان نامه

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

3 دانشیار، گروه توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، لرستان، ایران.

4 دانشیار، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

امروزه کم‌آبی به‌ویژه در بخش کشاورزی از محرزترین مسائل در کشور ایران هست و در آینده بروز چالش‌های مختلف در وضعیت منابع آب امری اجتناب‌ناپذیر است و بر این اساس تصمیم‌گیری درست و بهینه مستلزم مطالعه همه‌جانبه در آینده است که انجام تحقیقات آینده‌نگاری را قابل‌توجیه می‌کند. پژوهش حاضر یک تحقیق کاربردی، تک مقطعی و هنجاری است که از رویکرد آینده‌نگاری برای مدیریت پایدار منابع آب زیر‌زمینی در بخش کشاورزی حوضه کرخه‌علیا بهره برده شده است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق تمام کارشناسان از نهادهای دانشگاه، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان، مدیریت بانک کشاورزی، اداره کل منابع طبیعی و آبخیزداری استان لرستان و اداره محیط‌زیست شهرستان کوهدشت انتخاب شدند. در ابتدا با انجام مصاحبه‌های نیم ساختارمند به شناسایی مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر مدیریت پایدار منابع آب زیرزمینی اقدام شد و در ادامه از تکنیک تحلیل پیشران‌ها و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار MAC-MIC به شناسایی پیشران‌های مؤثر از بین مؤلفه‌های حاصل از مصاحبه اقدام شد. این حوزه‌ها به ترتیب اولویت عبارت‌اند از توسعه زیرساخت‌ها برای جذب سرمایه‌گذاری‌ها و توسعه دانش و آگاه‌سازی بهره‌برداران از مشکلات منطقه (با میزان امتیاز اثرگذاری 26)، ارزش‌گذاری آب و حذف یارانه‌های مرتبط با آب در بخش کشاورزی (با کسب امتیاز 21)، توسعه مشاغل غیرزراعی در جوامع روستایی (با میزان امتیاز اثرگذاری 28) و تقویت ارتباط نهادهای مرتبط با آب (با میزان امتیاز اثرگذاری 29). نتایج نهایی این تحقیق نشان داد که لازمه تحقق پایداری منابع آب زیر‌زمینی توجه همزمان به چندین حوزه مختلف هست و این تنوع را می‌توان از متفاوت بودن ماهیت پیشران‌ها دریافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Use of Foresight in the Sustainable Management of Water Resources in the Agricultural Sector of the Karkheh-Olia Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Sepahvand 1
  • Karim Naderi Mahdei 2
  • Saeed Gholamrezai 3
  • Masod Bijani 4
1 PhD Student, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, College of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University (BASU), Hamedan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, College of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University (BASU), Hamedan, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, College of Agriculture, Lorestan University (LU), Lorestan, Iran.
4 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, College of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University (TMU), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Water scarcity, especially in the agricultural sector, is one of the most important issues in Iran, and in the future, the occurrence of various challenges in the state of water resources is inevitable. Based on this, it is necessary to make a decision and a comprehensive study for the future. This is applied, single-section, and normative research, and the foresight approach has been used for the sustainable management of underground water resources. The statistical population of this research was all experts from institutions related to water resources management in Lorestan province. At first, semi-structured interviews were conducted, and then the CIA technique was used. 8 driving components were identified and in order of priority, they are the development of infrastructure to attract investments and the development of knowledge and awareness of the users of the region's problems (impact score 26), valuing water and removing subsidies related to water in the agricultural sector (score 21), development of non-agricultural businesses in rural communities (impact score 28) and strengthening the relationship of water-related institutions (impact score 29). The final results of this research showed that it is necessary to realize the sustainability of underground water resources in the Karkheh-Olia basin and at the same time to pay attention to several different areas and this variety can be obtained from the different nature of the drivers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Analysis of drivers
  • Forecasting application
  • Karkheh basin
  • Underground water
  • Sustainable management of agricultural water resources
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