تغییرات اقلیمی و کشاورزی در شهرستان نجف‌آباد: ارزیابی تأثیرات و راهبردهای سازگاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد مدعو، گروه آموزش جغرافیا، دانشگاه فرهنگیان، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه آموزش جغرافیا، دانشگاه فرهنگیان، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

بخش کشاورزی به دلیل تعاملات گسترده‌ای که با محیط دارد، بیشترین تأثیر را از تغییرات اقلیمی می‌پذیرد و جوامع روستایی وابسته به فعالیت کشاورزی را با خطرات جدی تهدید می‌شود. هدف پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی آثار تغییرات اقلیمی بر کشاورزی و انتخاب راهبردهای سازگاری در شهرستان نجف‌آباد است. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش از نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی است و داده‌ها به روش پیمایشی (پرسش‌نامه) تهیه شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر کشاورزان شهرستان نجف‌آباد هستند. حجم نمونه 300 نفر کشاورز است که از‌طریق فرمول کوکران و با روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده انتخاب شدند. ابزار اصلی پژوهش، پرسش‌نامه بوده که روایی آن توسط اساتید و صاحب‌نظران تأیید و پایایی آن با آلفای کرونباخ (760/0) محاسبه شد. تجزیه‌وتحلیل اطلاعات گردآوری‌شده با روش‌های آماری و نرم‌افزار SPSS انجام شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که کشاورزان نسبت به افزایش خشکسالی‌ها و کاهش بارش و گرم‌تر شدن هوا آگاهی دارند. حدود 51 درصد کشاورزان تنوع محصول را به‌عنوان یکی از راهبرد‌های سازگاری ترجیح می‌دهند. تقریباً 53 درصد کشاورزان معتقدند استفاده از کودها شیمیایی و سموم دفع آفات باعث افزایش ظرفیت سازگاری در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی می‌شود. همچنین 66 درصد کشاورزان سامانه‌های آبیاری پیشرفته را برای مقابله با تغییرات اقلیمی انتخاب کرده‌اند. نتایج رگرسیون لجستیک نشان داد متغیرهای جنسیت، آگاهی از تغییرات اقلیمی، اطلاعات دریافت شده از دفاتر خدمات ترویجی و سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی نقش مهم و تعیین‌کننده در تولید محصولات کشاورزی دارند. سه مدل رگرسیونی (تولیدات کشاورزی، بیکاری و کمبود مواد غذایی) تدوین شد که همگی معنی‌دار بودند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Climate Change and Agriculture in Najafabad County: Evaluation Effects and Adaptation Strategies

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamzeh Rahimi 1
  • Alireza Sadeghinia 2
1 Visiting Professor, Department of Geography Education, Farhangian University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography Education, Farhangian University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Agricultura sector due to extensive interaction with the environment, the agriculture receives the greatest impact from climate change and threatens rural communities depending on agriculture activity with serious risks. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of climate change on agriculture and to choose adaptation strategies in Najafabad. The research method in this study is descriptive and analytical and the data was prepared by field work and a questionnaire. The statistical population is Najafabad Farmers. The sample size is 300 farmers who were selected through Cochran's formula in the simple random. The main tool of the research was a questionnaire, the validity and reliability of were confirmed by experts with Cronbach's alpha 0/760. The analysis of the collected data was done with statistical methods and SPSS software. Results showed that farmers are aware of the increase in drought and the decrease in precipitation and the weather getting warmer. For 51% of farmers, crop diversity is one of the adaptation strategies. Almost 53% of farmers believe that the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides increases the capacity to adapt to climate change. 66% of farmers have chosen advanced irrigation systems to deal with climate change. The results of logistic regression showed that the variables of gender, awareness of climate change, information received from extension service offices and adaptation to climate change play an important and decisive role in the production of agricultural products. Three regression models as agricultural product, unemployment and food shortage were compiled all of which were significant. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Perception farmers
  • Agriculture
  • Adaptation strategies
  • Najafabad County
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