تغییرات اقلیمی و کشاورزی در شهرستان نجف‌آباد: ارزیابی تأثیرات و راهبردهای سازگاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد مدعو، گروه آموزش جغرافیا، دانشگاه فرهنگیان، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه آموزش جغرافیا، دانشگاه فرهنگیان، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

بخش کشاورزی به دلیل تعاملات گسترده‌ای که با محیط دارد، بیشترین تأثیر را از تغییرات اقلیمی می‌پذیرد و جوامع روستایی وابسته به فعالیت کشاورزی را با خطرات جدی تهدید می‌شود. هدف پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی آثار تغییرات اقلیمی بر کشاورزی و انتخاب راهبردهای سازگاری در شهرستان نجف‌آباد است. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش از نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی است و داده‌ها به روش پیمایشی (پرسش‌نامه) تهیه شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر کشاورزان شهرستان نجف‌آباد هستند. حجم نمونه 300 نفر کشاورز است که از‌طریق فرمول کوکران و با روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده انتخاب شدند. ابزار اصلی پژوهش، پرسش‌نامه بوده که روایی آن توسط اساتید و صاحب‌نظران تأیید و پایایی آن با آلفای کرونباخ (760/0) محاسبه شد. تجزیه‌وتحلیل اطلاعات گردآوری‌شده با روش‌های آماری و نرم‌افزار SPSS انجام شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که کشاورزان نسبت به افزایش خشکسالی‌ها و کاهش بارش و گرم‌تر شدن هوا آگاهی دارند. حدود 51 درصد کشاورزان تنوع محصول را به‌عنوان یکی از راهبرد‌های سازگاری ترجیح می‌دهند. تقریباً 53 درصد کشاورزان معتقدند استفاده از کودها شیمیایی و سموم دفع آفات باعث افزایش ظرفیت سازگاری در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی می‌شود. همچنین 66 درصد کشاورزان سامانه‌های آبیاری پیشرفته را برای مقابله با تغییرات اقلیمی انتخاب کرده‌اند. نتایج رگرسیون لجستیک نشان داد متغیرهای جنسیت، آگاهی از تغییرات اقلیمی، اطلاعات دریافت شده از دفاتر خدمات ترویجی و سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی نقش مهم و تعیین‌کننده در تولید محصولات کشاورزی دارند. سه مدل رگرسیونی (تولیدات کشاورزی، بیکاری و کمبود مواد غذایی) تدوین شد که همگی معنی‌دار بودند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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